With plenty of fantasy leagues drafting over the next few weeks and Opening Day rapidly approaching, now is the time to examine the Red Sox from a roto perspective.
Most of us already know the basics- who’s good, who to avoid, and so on. But for those less familiar with the team or for anyone who wants a refresher, here’s my take.
The easiest way to do this is to go around the diamond. Not that for offensive players, batting lines are AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS and production lines are RUNS/HR/RBI/SB. For pitchers, I’m including ERA/WHIP/K:BB/Strikeouts/Wins/IP/Saves (if applicable). A couple of warnings: My thoughts and recommendations are based on a sabermetric approach. I typically play in roto leagues, and while I tried to account for all the typical stat categories, be aware that the parameters of your league may lead to specific needs.
I make no guarantees and bear no responsibility for aby fantasy failures you might encounter. On the other, if you win- it’s all me.
Let’s go.
May Friendly Fenway give your fantasy numbers a nice boost in 2010.
Hitters
Catcher- Victor Martinez, age 31
Playing time: 80%
2009 batting: .303/.381/.480/.861
2009 production: 88/23/108/1
2010 outlook:Martinez split time between Cleveland and Boston last year. He is one of the best hitting catchers around and should easily post another OPS over .800. He’s good for something near 25 homers and should exceed 100 RBI. Aside from Joe Mauer, he’s probably the A.L. most reliable backstop.
Positional Rating: 5 of 5
Recommendation: Draft without fear, but in a round suitable for catchers. He’ll be money in the heart of a decent Boston lineup.
First Base- Kevin Youkilis, Age 31
Playing time: 90%
2009 batting: .305/.413/.548/.961
2009 production: 99/27/94/7
2010 outlook:Youk has emerged as an elite hitter with good power. His strength lies in his ability to get on-base, but he’ll have his share of extra-base hits and should approach 30 homers. 100+ runs scored and RBI are doable. Youkilis may have to carry more of the load this year in the absence of Bay, so be aware of that possible pressure. He looks to be a full-time first baseman with Beltre in town, and that could affect positional eligibility depending on your league.
Positional Rating: 4 of 5
Recommendation: Even at a fairly deep first base spot, Youkilis is a top ten 1B. He’ll be a good producer for you as long as you don’t expect elite power numbers.
Second Base- Dustin Pedroia, Age 26
Playing time: 95%
2009 batting: .296/.371/.447/.819
2009 production: 115/15/72/20
2010 outlook:Anytime you can get an OPS over .800 from a middle infielder, you’re doing well. Pedroia is the ultimate jack-of-all-trades when it comes to fantasy. Though he’s not a master of any one category, he can help you across the board. He’ll score 100 runs, drive in 70+, pop a few homers, and swipe enough bags to keep you in contention.
Positional Rating: 5 of 5
Recommendation: Consider Dustin a top three 2B and remember that it’s a thin position. Snap him up as soon as middle infield (MI) becomes a priority. At the top of Boston’s lineup, he’ll be a great producer. Look for Pedroia and Ellsbury to run even more this season- 25+ steals is likely.
Shortstop- Marco Scutaro, Age 34
Playing time: 90%
2009 batting: .282/.379/.409/.789
2009 production: 100/12/60/14
2010 outlook:Scoots was with the Blue Jays last year and hit second. With Boston, he’ll be in the 9-hole, so don’t grab him expecting him to match the career highs he posted across the board in 2009. It won’t happen. However, he should be a decent shortstop or third MI. I’m wary of Scutaro, who’s had a short career as a full-time starter. At the bottom of the order, expect something more like 70 runs, 10 homers, and 50 RBI. Depending on Boston’s 2010 strategy, he could run a little more this year than last, so the steals could creep up near 20. Don’t expect a repeat of the .789 OPS.
Positional Rating: 3.5 of 5
Recommendation: Again, this is a thin position and Scutaro is probably a top ten SS. But bear in mind that there’s quite a drop-off from the elite shortstops to the next tier. Draft accordingly.
Third Base- Adrian Beltre, Age 31
Playing time: 85%
2009 batting: 54/8/44/13 *missed roughly 150 at bats due to injury
2009 production: .265/.304/.379/.683
2010 outlook:Don’t judge Beltre by his 2009 numbers- he was hurt, and they were ugly. In addition, he never took to Safeco Field. Fenway Park should be a much better venue fore him, offensively. That being said, Beltre is still a lead weight in terms of average or OBP. Aside from an aberrant and suspicious 2004 season, the guy is mired in the low .300s for on-base % and you shouldn’t expect that to change. But he should bounce back in terms of production. Something closer to 20 homers with 80 runs and RBI could be reasonable if he stays healthy. There is a school of thought that says he’ll have a breakout year, but I can’t predict that with any confidence.
Positional Rating: 3 of 5
Recommendation: Beltre is a decent option, but with Youkilis having 1B/3B eligibility in many leagues he probably won’t be the best Boston 3B in fantasy leagues. It’s possible the power could return…even exceeding my expectations. But it’s not guarantee. I put him just outside of the top twenty third basemen.
Left Field- Jacoby Ellsbury, Age 26
Playing time: 95%
2009 batting: .301/.355/.415/.770
2009 production: 94/8/60/70
2010 outlook:Ellsbury led the Majors in steals last year and is a good bet to do it again in 2010. The kid is a pure blazer, but it’s important to remember that he doesn’t hurt you in other categories…except power. As a leadoff man, he won’t get you RBI, but you know that going into the draft. What he will do is hit over .300 and score 100 runs. With the new Sox lineup, expect a minimal number of games that put him anywhere other than atop the order.
Positional Rating: 4 of 5
Recommendation: Ellsbury has some obvious drawbacks, but he can single-handedly win the SB category for you. His average or OBP and runs scored should exceed the numbers of similar guys like Michael Bourn. With less power all-around, the 2010 Sox might turn to small-ball tactics more often, and that could mean even more running for the guys at the top of the order. Remember too that Ellsbury is just now coming into the heart of his prime, so don’t be surprised if the power numbers jump a little. 10+ homers are possible. Overall I consider him a top twenty OF.
Centerfield- Mike Cameron, Age 37
Playing time: 85%
2009 batting: .250/.342/.452/.795
2009 production: 78/24/70/7
2010 outlook:Cameron, the aging veteran, is about as predictable as it gets in MLB. He’s hit 20 or homers in ever healthy season, will score you a decent number of runs and RBI, and will absolutely murder you in average. His OBP isn’t terrible, but it won’t win awards either. And though his defensive range is still great, he didn’t run much on the basepaths last year. He’ll get a few days off here an there as well, so exercise caution before picking him up. Still, he’s not a bad option on a pretty good team.
Positional Rating: 3 of 5
Recommendation: Cameron has fallen outside of the top fifty outfielders, but later in drafts should still offer some value. It would be nice if he’d get closer to the 15+ steals he was posting a couple of years back, and that’s certainly possible with the Red Sox. You’ll get you 20 homers and .250 average, barring injury…but that’s a concern. Cameron has had a lot of trouble staying healthy over the years, and his advanced age won’t help that. The Sox have platoon and backup options, so beware.
Right Field- J.D. Drew, Age 34
Playing time: 80%
2009 batting: .279/.392/.522/.914
2009 production: 84/24/68/2
2010 outlook: Drew is easily one of the most frustrating players in baseball history. A quick glance at his slugging percentage and OPS show the power and potential, but nagging injuries and an apparent lack of interest have dogged him year after year. He’s a constant injury concern, and that 80% projected playing time should be taken witha grain of salt. The thing is, when he’s actually on the field Drew isn’t bad. At all. He’ll get you something around 25 homers and posts a mean OBP. His average isn’t stellar, so be aware of your league’s settings. His production numbers might rise this year, assuming he stays healthy. With Jason Bay gone, the RBI chances will be distributed to others in the middle part of the lineup, and that includes JD.
Positional Rating: 3 of 5
Recommendation: Drew is a risk/ reward type of guy. He’s a top fifty outfielder who could be top 30 if he plays to his capabilities. But because he’s so often nicked up and because the Sox have depth, I can’t recommend him without reservations. When the draft gets into later rounds, he, like Cameron, should offer some value. Frankly, he’s a better bet thank Mike, but not by much. On the other hand, you never know when he might bust out a 30/100 type year. It could happen…but probably won’t.
Designated Hitter- David Ortiz, Age 34
Playing time: 80%
2009 batting: /.238/.332/.462/.794
2009 production: 77/28/99/0
2010 outlook:Do you want the good news or the bad news? Good first. Papi finished just shy of 30 homers and an .800 OPS despite slumping as hard as a guy can slump for the first two months of the year. He still has elite power potential, though expecting elite numbers would be foolish. The bad news? Where do I start…well, he’s a cipher when it comes to speed: Zero steals. He’s an anchor in terms of positional eligibility: Utility only. His production has declined immensely thanks to wrist and knee injuries (your steroid opinions are your own to have). And in 2010, he’s got mike Lowell pushing him for at bats, at least until one of them (probably Lowell) is unloaded.
Positional Rating: 3 of 5
Recommendation: I can’t ding Papi too much because the possibilities are still there. He still has a big, long power swing that should get him to or over 30 homers, and that’s no joke in fantasy. His average should rebound from 2009, because he can’t possibly have a start as bad as that one. Right? Personally, I’m anticipating something like 80 runs, 30 HRs, 90 RBI…again, other Sox are going to have to drive in runs this year. Papi could easily implode the rest of the way and become irrelevant. Or he could rebound and have a couple more decent seasons. He’ll never be the guy he was a few years back, but if it’s late in thed draft, don’t completely ignore him. Risk/ reward here…
Pitchers
Starter #1- Jon Lester, Age 26
Playing time: 30+ starts
2009 pitching: 3.41/ 1.23/ 3.52/ 225/ 15/ 203.1
2010 outlook:Lester is an elite A.L. starter who should maintain or improve upon his 2009 numbers across the board. He has great power, solid control, and will be throwing for a quality team. Some sources rank him lower than Beckett; I view him as the Sox ace and best pitcher. Not by a huge margin, but by enough to matter.
Positional Rating: 5 of 5
Recommendation: Draft away. Lester is a top ten pitcher.
Starter #2- Josh Beckett, Age 30
Playing time: 30+ starts
2009 pitching: 3.86/ 1.19/ 3.62/ 199/ 17/ 212.1
2010 outlook:Many consider Beckett to still be the Sox best pitcher, but his ERA has begun creeping up too often for me to elevate him over Lester. That said, Beckett is another elite pitcher. I expect his 2010 to resemble last year, though owners hope he break the 200K mark and drops the ERA a bit closer to 3.50.
Positional Rating: 5 of 5
Recommendation: Beckett is a top ten starter. Or if not, he’s on the fringe. Assuming he avoids the pesky injuries that have at times limited his effectiveness, he’ll be fantastic at the front of your rotation. Again, draft away.
Starter #3- John Lackey, Age 32
Playing time: 30+ starts
2009 pitching: 3.83/ 1.27/ 2.96/ 139/ 11/ 176.1
2010 outlook: Lackey’s innings have dipped a bit over the past two years and that bears some scrutiny. But if he stays healthy and gets closer to 200 IP, he’ll be a solid fantasy pitcher. His win total and Ks should bounce back a little, but monitor that WHIP- Lackey lives around the 1.30 mark and that has the potential to spell trouble.
Positional Rating: 4 of 5
Recommendation: Well within the top twenty, Lackey is a relaible bet to post good numbers across the board. He’ll have to adjust to the A.L. East, but that’s no big deal. Expect 15 or wins if he’s plays a full season. He gives the Sox a 1-3 that’s probably the best in the majors. Draft without fear.
Starter #4- Clay Buchholz, Age 25
Playing time: 20-25 starts
2009 pitching: 4.21/ 1.38/ 1.89/ 68/ 7/ 92.0
2010 outlook:Buchholz is still a developing arm and it’s tough to predict what kind of improvement we’ll see this year. He’s been trade bait over the past couple of seasons, and while it wouldn’t shock me to see the Red Sox move him as part of a package deal, the team may be warming up to the idea of keeping him around long term.
Positional Rating: 3.5 of 5
Recommendation: Even if he does nothing more than increase his start total, Buchholz will be a top fifty pitcher. But he could make great strides this year. The first order of business is to reduce the number of baserunners, and that means cutting his walk rate. The WHIP and ERA will be better for the change if he can pull it off. Buchholz could be a top forty option among starting pitching this year, and though he’s risky, he has major upside. If the top tier of pitchers has been picked clean, don’t be afraid to take a shot on the youngster.
Starter #5- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Age 29
Playing time: 20-25 starts
2009 pitching: 5.76/ 1/87/ 1/80/ 54/ 4/ 59.1
2010 outlook:Matsuzaka was hurt for most of 2009, so these numbers are mostly meaningless. But don’t dismiss them entirely, because they are reflective are his problems. First, durability. He’s already hurt again this year after making only 12 starts in 2009. And he missed a few starts in 2008 as well. Second, Dice-K puts way too many guys on base. His walk rate is abominable for the amount of money he cost. His 2.90 ERA is 2008 is not only long forgotten, but was a tremendous stroke of luck in the first place. If he can’t control his WHIP, there’s no way he posts an ERA under 4.00. In my opinion, Matsuzaka has been a bust thus far. When you consider his price tag and the expectations, his contributions have been minimal. Boston desperately needs him to pay dividends and justify the investment. It’s not that they lack pitching strength, but having a reliable back-end starter is important during the long season.
Positional Rating: 2.5 of 5
Recommendation: Until I see proof that he can stay healthy, I’m not going to recommend him. If it gets very late in the draft and the picking are slim, I’d say take a risk, but be aware that it could backfire. The Sox have wily veteran Tim Wakefield waiting in the wings with the knuckler. So when he does come back from his current health issues, Dice will be on a fairly short leash.
Closer- Jonathan Papelbon, Age 29
Playing time: 60-70 appearances
2009 pitching: 1.85/ 1.15/ 3.17/ 76/ 1/ 68.0/ 38 saves
2010 outlook:Suddenly, Paps isn’t that young anymore- 30 is just around the corner. But he is one of the game’s best firemen. His ERA should stay sub-2.00 with solid peripherals, and most importantly, he should finish with around 40 saves once again. For many leagues, closers are hoarded like gold, and Papelbon will be among the first to go. However, there’s a downside to consider. His walk rate skyrocketed last year, going from 2.3 walks/nine innings in 2007 and 1.0 in 2008 to 3.2 in 2009- the highest since his rookie campaign. That’s significant for a couple of reasons. First, baserunners are poison for closers. Second, his K:BB ration plummeted from 5.30 and 9.63 in the prior two years to 3.17 last year. It’s something to keep an eye on.
Positional Rating: 5 of 5
Recommendation: He’s still money, but the numbers are worth watching. He’s gotten an extension from the Sox, but whether that will motivate him or make him more apathetic we don’t yet know…Still, draft away as soon as you need saves or quality relief.
Right-handed Set-up- Daniel Bard, Age 25
Playing time: 60+ appearances
2009 pitching: 3.65/ 1.28/ 2.86/ 63/ 2/ 49.1/ 1 save
2010 outlook:If Papelbon stumbles or gets hurt, Bard will close. That’s important to know. But beyond that, this kid has major upside. 63 strikeouts in 49 innings is no joke, and in his first big league season his ERA and WHIP were respectable. Expect those to drop as he gains experience. Bard could be trade bait to be included in a package deal, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him closing games if he does go elsewhere. For now, he’s a big time asset in the Sox’s pen.
Positional Rating: 4 of 5
Recommendation: As a backup closer and power reliever with good peripherals, Bard would make for some good insurance. Draft him accordingly if you have the room or your league doesn’t use saves.
Left-handed Set-up- Hideki Okajima, Age 34
Playing time: 60+ appearances
2009 pitching: 3.39/ 1.26/ 2.52/ 53/ 6/ 61.0/ 0 saves
2010 outlook: Okajima will be Boston’s primary lefty specialist this year and could pick up a handful of saves. Beyond that, his value is in solid numbers across the board. He doesn’t have great power, but he’s reliable and will get enough work to stay sharp.
Positional Rating: 3 of 5
Recommendation: He lacks value because as a lefty, he won’t get to vulture all that many saves, but a few here and there won’t be bad for his owners. He’s an option mainly in leagues that don’t include saves, and in those he should be decent. He does not have elite strikeout potential, however and is getting older.
Other Names to Watch-
Jeremy Hermida, Age 26 (OF)
Hermida will be a fourth outfielder at the start and shouldn’t have a lot of value outside of deep A.L.-only leagues. But don’t be surprised to see him play once a week or so. Maybe even twice. He’s got 20-HR and .800 OPS potential and came at a low price. He gives the Sox good depth and could gain a lot of value if someone in front of him gets hurt.
Ramon Ramirez, Age 28 (RP)
He’s no Manny, but this Ramirez is a very good middle reliever as evidenced by 2009′s 2.84 ERA. he posted a 2.64 in 2008 with Kansas City, and came to Boston in the Coco Crisp trade. If Okajima or bard stumble, expect Ramirez to slide into a set-up role. If you play in a league without saves, he could have some value, espeically if his K rate returns to 2008 levels. That year he had 70 strikeouts in 71 innings.
Manny Delcarmen, Age 28 (RP)
Delcarmen has been Boston’s horse for middle relief- he’s the primary bullpen option in the middle innings. He stumbled a little last year and saw his ERA rise over 4.00, but a rebound is probably in order. He needs to get his walks down, but in 2008 Manny had 72 Ks in 74 innings.
Tim Wakefield, Age 43 (SP/RP)
Thanks to the knuckleball, Wakefield is an ageless swingman that can start or relive as needed. He’ll pick up some spot starts throughout the year and offers the Sox flexibility in games that go south in the early innings. Don’t expect pretty numbers, but if you’re looking for temporary help, remember that Wake can get on a hot streak.
2010 Boston Red Sox: Ranked by Fantasy Value
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Victor Martinez
3. Kevin Youkilis
4. Jon Lester
5. Josh Beckett
6. Jacoby Ellsbury
7. Jonathan Papelbon
8. John Lackey
9. Adrian Beltre
10. J.D. Drew
11. Marco Scutaro
12. Clay Buchholz
13. Mike Cameron
14. David Ortiz
15. Daniel Bard
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka
17. Hideki Okajima
18. Ramon Ramirez
19. Manny Delcarmen
20. Tim Wakefield
Good luck to all you managers out there. Happy drafting.
About Matt Strobl