I’m going to be doing something a little different from now on. If you have been following me and this page you know (like the rest of my life) this is a work in progress. I had a very popular and positive response to breaking down the key race of the weekend horse by horse, so I’m going to do that from here on out. I hope it you like it.
I couldn’t wait for this weekend being I was 0 for 7 last weekend. I am hunting redemption hard…no excuses last weekend….I sucked plain and simple. The horse racing game is a lot like the game of golf, it’ll humble you quick. That being said I am still at an above average 39% (20-51).
Now, let’s look at this weekends action:
Saratoga Race: 9
The Forego Stakes
Purse $250,000. For Three Year Olds And Upward.
| 1 | Bribon | 7/G | L | G K Gomez | 124 | T A Pletcher | |
| 2 | Vineyard Haven | 4/C | L | A Garcia | 124 | S bin Suroor | |
| 3 | Girolamo | 4/C | L* | C H Velasquez | 124 | S bin Suroor | |
| 4 | Big Drama | 4/C | L | E Coa | 124 | D Fawkes | |
| 5 | Here Comes Ben | 4/C | L | A O Solis | 124 | C Lopresti | |
| 6 | Charitable Man | 4/C | L | R A Dominguez | 124 | A W Dutrow | |
| 7 | Omniscient | 4/C | L | C H Borel | 124 | S M Asmussen | |
| 8 | Starforaday | 7/H | L | R Maragh | 124 | G C Contessa | |
| 9 | Warrior’s Reward | 4/C | L | J R Leparoux | 124 | I R Wilkes | |
| 10 | Checklist | 4/C | L | J R Velazquez | 124 | T A Pletcher | |
| 11 | You and I Forever | 5/H | L | J Castellano | 124 | T M Bush |
Analysis:
1) Vineyard Haven- this lightly raced grey has hit the board in 8 of 9 lifetime starts while winning 5 of them. Like the versatility as he can win from on or off the pace and he likes the distance. (3-2-1-0 at 7 furlongs). Heads a strong bin Suroor entry as you get Girolamo along with this horse.
2) Bribon- this 7 year old “millionaire” still packs a good closing wallop as witnessed in both the True North Handicap and the A.G Vanderbilt (his last 2 races) He has better Speed Figures that the top choice…. Closes and would be no surprise at all should he land in the winners circle.
3) Big Drama- actually finished ahead of Bribon in his last race ( the A.G Vanderbilt) while running a 108 Speed Figure. Also has versatility but I think he perfers the lead. In any event, he is 8 for 14 lifetime and I expect him to run big on Saturday.
Honorable Mentions: Here Comes Ben, if you like longshots…this is your horse. He is 3 for 4 at this 7 furlong distance and his last 3 speed figures are (climbing) 90, 102 and 104. He also has been on the board in 9 of 11 lifetime starts. Closes…and has a chance. Warrior’s Reward also closes and capable of popping a big race now and again….longshot possibility
|
Woodward H. (Grade I)
|
| 1 | Convocation | 4/C | L | J Castellano | 126 | J A Jerkens | |
| 2 | Mine That Bird | 4/G | L | R Maragh | 126 | D W Lukas | |
| 3 | Quality Road | 4/C | L | J R Velazquez | 126 | T A Pletcher | |
| 4 | Arcodoro | 4/C | L | D Cohen | 126 | E J Guillot | |
| 5 | Indian Dance | 4/G | L | K J Desormeaux | 126 | L E Murray | |
| 6 | Tranquil Manner | 4/C | L | A Garcia | 126 | K P McLaughlin | |
| 7 | Mythical Power | 4/C | L* | M Garcia | 126 | B Baffert |
Analysis:
PP# 1- Convocation: was beaten 7 lengths by Quality Road in the Met Mile after a bad start. He gets an extra furlong to work with in this race so he should be closer. Big, good looking son of Pulpit should absolutely hit the board in this spot.
PP#2- Mine That Bird: won the 2009 Kentucky Derby at 50-1, the problem is he hasn’t won since and his form has been slowly declining. To me, he is a one hit wonder. Back in the spring, there was a trainer change from Chip Woolley to D. Wayne Lukas, then Lukas takes him off the dirt and tries him on the turf and that experiment failed. Lastly, he gets a new jockey for Saturday’s race (from Borel to Maragh). So lets see, they try a new trainer, a new surface and a new jockey…..all signs of desperation to me….outside shot to hit the board here.
PP#3- Quality Road: was a HUGE disappointment in the Whitney when he was loping along on an easy lead and was still run down late by Blame. It kind of makes you want to take a step back and look at this horse again doesn’t it ??…..not me…..Ladies and Gentlemen this horse absolutely lays over this field. I mean, I can’t find a horse that should be within 5 lengths of him at the end and I’ve been studying this race since it came out on Wednesday night. In fact, depending on how he warms up right before the race and his odds, I’m thinking about betting $500.00 of my own money on him. He is in a “must win” situation as a loss here will greatly hurt his Horse of the Year chances. Even with the defeat last time out, he is still freakishly fast…..On the engine and down the road on Saturday.
PP#4- Arcodoro- I’m kind of wondering what this horse is doing in here. He is basically a grass horse that is 2 for 11 lifetime. To me, he’s a complete throw out.
PP#5- Indian Dance- had won 4 of his 1st 6 starts in his career then lost 3 straight. Closes, chance for a small slice.
PP#6- Tranquil Manner- ran the best race of his life in winning his last but that was against optional $75,000 claimers….a far cry from Quality Road. Also closes and I wouldnt be shocked if he runs a good race.
PP#7- Mythical Power- has been running so-so vs Grade: 2 and Grade: 3 horses in Texas, Iowa and California. Not sure what everyone else is seeing but he’s been the post time favorite in 7 of 12 lifetime starts and only won 3 of them.
Selections:
1) Quality Road
2) Convocation
3) Tranquil Manner
4) Mine That Bird
5) Indian Dance
|
Sunday September 5th, 2009
Del Mar Derby (Grade II)
Purse $300,000. For Three-Year-Olds
|
| 1 | Kid Edward | 3/C | L* | D R Flores | 122 | J M Cassidy | |
| 2 | Jairzihno | 3/C | L* | P A Valenzuela | 122 | S Callaghan | |
| 3 | Royal F J | 3/G | L* | R Bejarano | 122 | J Carava | |
| 4 | Summer Movie | 3/C | L* | V Espinoza | 122 | A Sherman | |
| 5 | Fantastic Pick | 3/G | L* | C S Nakatani | 122 | J Lloyd | |
| 6 | Twirling Candy | 3/C | L* | J Rosario | 122 | J W Sadler |
Analysis:
1) Twirling Candy- is undefeated thus far (3 for 3) including an impressive from off the pace win in the Oceanside Stakes on July 21st in his last. Figures to sit the trip again in this race.
2) Kid Edward- closed well to pass everyone expect the fleet Sidney’s Candy in his last (The La Jolla Handicap). Sidney’s Candy went on to set a track record in that race, which makes his 2nd place finish look all that much more impressive. BIG threat to win it all….
3) Alphie’s Bet- finished right behind Kid Edward in that same La Jolla Handicap race….must be considered.
|
Spinaway S. (Grade I)
|
| 1 | Abide | 2/F | L | S Bridgmohan | 119 | S M Asmussen | |
| 2 | Stopspendingmaria | 2/F | L | J R Velazquez | 119 | T A Pletcher | |
| 3 | Alienation | 2/F | L | C Hill | 119 | B Baffert | |
| 4 | Sky Hosoya | 2/F | L | J Castellano | 119 | T A Pletcher | |
| 5 | Valiant Passion | 2/F | L | J R Leparoux | 119 | T A Pletcher | |
| 6 | Le Mi Geaux | 2/F | L | F Lenclud | 119 | R E Dutrow, Jr. | |
| 7 | Coax Liberty | 2/F | L | J C Caraballo | 119 | J L Lawrence, II | |
| 8 | R Heat Lightning | 2/F | L | G K Gomez | 119 | T A Pletcher |
Analysis:
1) Alienation: was clearly 2nd to pro-tem division leader Position Limited in the Grade: 2 Adirondack Stakes in her last. (it was 5 lengths back to the 3rd place horse). Then had a big workout to follow that performance up ( 6 furlongs in 1:13.3). Looks best…
2) Stopspendingmaria- broke her maiden by 7 lengths in her second career start while firing a nice 91 Beyer Speed Figure, then finished 2nd in the Schyerville (on a sloppy track) and recorded a 59 Speed Figure…..thats a big drop…however, its possible she didnt like the slop and if that’s true I look for her to rebound in this race provided the track is fast.
3) Valiant Passion: won the 1st race of her career (by 9 lengths) impressively while still “green” over this very track. She should only get better with experience and could better this rating.
Honorable Mentions: Le Mi Geaux, won the aforementioned Schylerville with a nice late run. The race before that she broke her maiden by 7 1/2 lengths. She has a chance here…..I’m just not in love with her low Speed Figures. R Heat Lightning, won her debut race by 5 at Delaware Park then followed that up with a good “fast closing” 2nd in the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth in NJ…also has a chance and probably at decent odds too.
As always, good luck in whoever you play….I hope they run hard and straight for you. Have a safe and happy Labor Day, I’d love to break down some races there but its a little to far in advance (3-4 days?).
Thanks for reading,
Gerard
