Breaking Down the NFL Playoffs: Jets @ Colts

Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN

New York Jets (11-5/ AFC East Wild Card) vs.   Indianapolis Colts (10-6/ AFC South Champs)

Throughout the 2011 NFL Playoffs, John Mitchell Jacob Vance, and I will be bringing you insight and analysis on each upcoming game.  We begin in the AFC with a game that has drawn more than its fair share of headlines.  

Jets’ coach Rex Ryan has been a lightning rod for controversy and media scrutiny all season long, so none of us should be surprised that he’s in the center of the spotlight once again.  Earlier this week, Ryan made comments during a press conference describing this matchup as “personal” while expounding on how much he wants to beat Peyton Manning.  Frankly, it sounded a little sad.  

Ryan’s specialty is shooting his mouth off with bold predictions that don’t always come to fruition.  But we also can’t forget that his Jets made an unlikely playoff run last year that will surely serve as motivation for the 2011 campaign.  New York has excelled this season thanks to a stalwart #3 total defense.  The Jets ranked 6th in points allowed with 19.0 points per game.  

In contrast, the Colts surrendered an average of 24.3 points– 23rd in the league– and ranked 20th in total yards.  

Offensively, one might think that the Colts have a sizable advantage.  But the numbers don’t bear that out.  While Indy finished 4th with nearly 381 yards per game, the Jets weren’t so far behind at #11 (351 yards/ game).  The major difference between the 2 teams is how they move the ball:  Indy has the game’s best passing offense while the Jets struggled through the air.  But the Jets have the #4 rushing attack and Indy was last in the AFC.  

Though the Colts have been better at running the ball over the past few weeks, this game sets up as a classic pass versus rush matchup.  Whichever team is able to execute will have the upper hand, and the Colts defense will need to clamp down if Indy wants to defend its home turf.  

KEY PLAYERS 

How "The Sanchize" plays could determine the game's outcome.

David Harris (LB, NYJ) – The Colts are at their best when they are able to run the football effectively, because that sets up Peyton Manning in the play-action game. If David Harris and the rest of the Jets defense are able to keep the Colts from moving the ball on the ground, then it will put a lot more pressure on Manning to get the offense moving.  

Dominic Rhodes/ Joseph Addai/ Donald Brown (RBs, IND) – We all know Peyton Manning will be Peyton Manning in this game, but if Indy wants to win, they are going to need to get consistent play from their three runners. The Colts can’t afford to be one dimensional against a defense like the Jets.  

Mark Sanchez (QB, NYJ) – All the attention will be on the future Hall of Famer Manning, but Mark Sanchez is equally critical to this game.  The Jets’ coaching staff should limit the number of passing attempts and push the run game, but Ryan should also give Sanchez some shots downfield targeting Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards.  

KEY POSITIONAL BATTLE 

Dwight Freeney vs. D’Brickashaw Ferguson  

How much of this will Sanchez see on Saturday?

Freeney hasn’t had as good of a year as he has had in the past.  His 10.0 sacks represent the second lowest season total he’s had in any full year.  However, he is better and more dangerous at home on the Lucas Oil Turf and could pose a problem for the Jets’ passing game.  

Having said that D’Brickashaw Ferguson is a good match for him both in size and speed.  At 6’5″, 295 pounds, he has the girth to keep Freeney at bay.  And quick feet should help him wall off the outside.    

Whichever of these 2 gets the better of the other could be celebrating at night’s end. 

TALE OF THE TAPE

X-FACTOR

3^rd Down Conversions – How each team does in pressure situations could go a long way in deciding the game.  Both offenses have converted their third downs well this year–  Indianapolis ranked 5th in the NFL with a 44.6% conversion rate while the Jets were 15th (39.6%).  Both defenses have struggled at times to stop opponents, but the Jets finished 10th in the league by limiting opponents to 37.9% percent conversion.  The Colts rank 21st, allowing conversions 39.0% of the time.  Whichever team is able to convert a higher percentage of third downs (and shut down its opponents drives) will have a much better shot of winning.  

FINAL PREDICTIONS 

Mitchell:  I’m not betting against Peyton Manning at home in the playoffs. The Colts finished the season strong, while the Jets had some struggles. Indianapolis seemed to hit their stride late in the season and they should be able to run the ball effective enough to keep the Jets defense guessing.  Colts 23, Jets 20 

Strobl: I tend to agree, John.  Indy has had its ups and downs, but there’s more offensive talent on their sideline.  And Rex Ryan wants this win a little too much.  Making it personal could cause him to lose perspective.  Colts 24, Jets 19 

Vance: The Colts are just plain beaten and battered. While I would never count out Peyton Manning, The Jets have a fierce secondary and a pretty good rushing game. If Ryan and Schottenheimer stick to their “Ground and Pound” philosophy they should get the revenge that Rex desires.  Jets 28, Colts 21