Sunday, January 23rd/ 6:30 pm Eastern
Heinz Field– Pittsburgh, PA
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New York Jets
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Having taken a look at the upcoming NFC Championship Game, Jacob Vance, John Mitchell and I are ready to turn our attention to Sunday’s late game.
Having gotten past one elite defense with a win over Baltimore, Big Ben and the Steelers' offense now face another
The first thing you’ll notice about this matchup is how quiet the New York Jets have gotten. The brash bravado and trash-talk have all disappeared. It’s one thing to waste your energy being loud and obnoxious when you’re trying to convince yourself that you can pull off an unlikely upset. But with a convincing win over New England in its pocket, New York suddenly has a very real chance of making good on its pre-season prediction. Clearly, the Jets want to focus on their preparation and play, but it’s probably also the case that even Rex Ryan isn’t crazy enough to give the physical Steelers’ defense any extra motivation.
Before the NFL hit the field in 2010, Ryan was talking about going to the Superbowl. All he has to do to make that happen is beat a franchise that has some experience in getting to the big game.
This game is all about D– it features the league’s #2 and #3 overall defenses. Pittsburgh enjoys the slight statistical edge, but the reality is that both stop units are superb. The Steelers were tops in the NFL against the rush, which forced teams to go to the air. Only the Ravens, Patriots, and Titans faced more pass attempts from opposing teams. Despite that, Pittsburgh finished 12th in passing yards allowed and surrendered the third fewest touchdowns through the air.
Mark Sanchez will have to overcome his lack of playoff experience and play like a veteran against the Steelers
New York finished third and sixth against the run and pass respectively, though the defense did break down more frequently in the redzone. The Jets rank 19th in passing TDs allowed and 12th in rushing touchdowns.
Offensively, the teams are fairly evenly matched. However, Ben Roethlisberger is certainly the more accomplished quarterback. Will he leverage his post-season experience and take the Steelers to yet another Superbowl? Or can Mark Sanchez pull off a miracle and take down another titan? Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have already been dispatched, so it would be unwise to write off the Jets just yet.
It’s also worth remembering that New York handled its business in week 15 with a 22-17 at Heinz Field.
KEY PLAYERS
James Harrison (LB, PIT) – Say what you want about his methods. Harrison flat-out gets the job done. He tormented Joe Flacco to the tune of 5 hits, 3 sacks, and 2 passes defended last week, and in case you haven’t noticed, Joe Flacco is better than Mark Sanchez. It’s unlikely that New York can win by running the ball. So if Harrison can shut down the QB (again), it will probably be a Steeler victory.
LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, NYJ) –We all know that Pittsburgh is going to bring pressure against Mark Sanchez. The second-year QB is going to see blitzes all game long, which makes LDT a very important man. He proved to be a valuable player in the Pats game, and could once again be a key factor in building up the New York run game. Then there is his role as an outlet pass option when Sanchez gets into trouble. But perhaps his most important duty will be picking up the blitz when the Steelers send extra players.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT) –Taking a good look at the numbers, it could be argued that “Big Ben” is vastly overrated for his role as the quarterback who won two Super Bowls. Having said that, he is undoubtedly a key component in the Steelers’ game plan. How he adjusts to the Jets defense will play a big part in the team’s overall success. Roethlisberger will be facing a tandem of elite corners that will test his accuracy and tenacity. Any secondary that can shut down the Patriots passing attack is formidable to say the least.
KEY POSITIONAL BATTLE
New York’s Ground Game vs. The Pittsburgh Rush Defense
The Jets performed the rare feat of rushing for more than 100 yards against the Steelers in week 15
The Jets are obviously not going to want to put all the pressure on Mark Sanchez to win the game. They are going to rely heavily on their defense, but at some point the offense is going to manufacture points. Their top 5 running game, which racked up 148.4 yards per game this year, is going to have to make some plays.
Pittsburgh allowed an average of only 62.8 yards per game in 2010; that’s quite a gap and something has to give. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene will need to churn up some yardage on the ground if New York has a chance of winning. Failure to do so will send New York back to the drawing board as the franchise tries to end its Superbowl drought.
TALE OF THE TAPE
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Jets |
Steelers |
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RUN OFFENSE |
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PASSING OFFENSE |
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RUN DEFENSE |
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PASSING DEFENSE |
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push |
SPECIAL TEAMS |
push |
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COACHING |
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INTANGIBLES |
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X-FACTOR
The Steelers Offensive Line. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has taken a lot of heat in recent seasons. Big Ben has suffered high sack totals that can’t be entirely attributed to his love of holding the ball too long. Injuries and a general lack of talent have plagued the Steelers at the line of scrimmage, and while this season’s o-line hasn’t been horrible, it hasn’t been world class by any stretch of the imagination.
The Steelers' o-line will be put to the test on Sunday
Now this quintet is about to face a very good defense, a defense that will need to be slowed if Roethlisberger is going to be able to have time to make plays. Rex Ryan went against his own history by not blitzing Tom Brady, preferring instead to allow the downfield coverage to limit the Pats. But he has to know that Roethlisberger is not Brady.
For one thing, Roethlisberger is willing to pull the ball down and run if nothing opens up. For another, he’s inclined to try to make a play at all costs. That occasionally gets him into negative yardage situations. The Jets’ front will probably be more aggressive, and it will be incumbent upon the Pittsburgh offensive line to prevent them from being successful.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Mitchell: I liked the way the Jets played last week, but the Steelers defense is going to pose a lot more problems for Mark Sanchez and the offense than New England did. I think Big Ben will have a big game, but I think it will be the Pittsburgh defense that comes up big when it matters most. Steelers 27, Jets 17
Strobl: I’m not betting on Roethlisberger to have a big game. This Jets pass defense has figured out how to stop opponents and is executing its gameplans as well as any defensive backfield I’ve seen. Turnovers made last week’s Steelers-Ravens game look wilder than it actually was; that game was about defenses and this one will be too. However, I do think Roethlisberger will struggle less than Sanchez. Steelers 20, Jets 16
Vance: It’s difficult to maintain intensity, so don’t be surprised if the Jets come out flat after an emotionally charged win at Foxboro. I expect Sanchez to show his inexperience as he’s forced into a few key turnovers. Steelers 24, Jets 14
About Matt Strobl
