The Bubble Report continues on with a look at the SEC. A down year for the SEC, their conference RPI is sixth in the nation. They are ahead of only the Pac-10 out of the power six conferences and trail the Mountain West Conference. The SEC is divided into an East and West division, and in this season the power lies in the East. Florida (20-5, 9-2), Kentucky (17-7, 5-5), and Vanderbilt (18-6, 6-4) are all currently ranked and locks for the NCAA Tournament. We’re going to also move Georgia (17-7, 6-4) from the East to lock status but they may slip if they lose their next three: home against Vanderbilt, @ Tennessee, and @ Florida. But, with a win over Kentucky and a better conference record than the Wildcats, the Bulldogs are sitting pretty right now.
The only two SEC teams off the bubble right now for sure would be LSU (10-15, 2-8) and Auburn (9-15, 2-8). The other six teams in the SEC have a chance to make the field and can be classified as bubble teams.
Alabama (16-8, 8-2). Best Win: Kentucky, @ Tennessee. Worst Loss: Iowa, St. Peter’s, Providence. Alabama had a rough non-conference season losing three games in four days on a neutral court (Seton Hall, Iowa, St. Peter’s). The Crimson Tide would win all these games if they were played now. Alabama has taken advantage of being in the SEC West, going 5-1 against the West. With a three game lead in the West, Alabama is almost a sure bet to win that division. Out of their last six games, four is against the SEC West, three against teams they’ve already beaten once. Prognosis: Good. Alabama should end up 12-4 in SEC Play, although only playing each SEC East team once. 20 wins overall and 12 wins in conference play is easily within grasp. If they achieve that, then they can wipe out an ugly non-conference slate.
Alabama has risen out of the SEC West to put themselves in contention for a NCAA Tournament birth come March.
Tennessee (15-10, 5-5). Best Win: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt. Worst Loss: Oakland, Charlotte, College of Charleston. When you talk about resume building wins, Tennessee is one of two teams in college basketball to beat Pittsburgh (the other is Notre Dame). The only thing keeping Tennessee on the bubble is an ugly overall record, 15-10, coupled with some bad non-conference losses. The loss to Florida by one on the road yesterday hurt; that win alone would’ve been enough. Tennessee just needs one more feather in the cap to slide them over. The Vols still have Kentucky and Georgia at home, and Vanderbilt on the road. Prognosis: Like Alabama, Tennessee currently looks pretty good. The Pittsburgh win is going to be worth its weight in gold come March. One more win over a ranked team would make them a lock.
South Carolina (13-10, 4-6). Best Win: Clemson, Vanderbilt, @ Florida. Worst Loss: Auburn, @ Furman. South Carolina has struggled of late losing five of their last six. The low point of that losing streak was becoming one of two SEC teams to lose to Auburn and lost that game by 15. The misfortune of being in the SEC East looks to be the nail in the coffin; the Gamecocks had to play the three ranked SEC teams twice along with two games vs. Tennessee and Georgia. Prognosis: South Carolina would either need to win out or take five of six at this point of the season. That’s a tall task considering South Carolina still has Tennessee twice and a trip to Kentucky.
Mississippi State (13-11, 5-5). Best Win: Florida. Worst Loss: Florida Atlantic, East Tennessee St. Mississippi St. didn’t get enough done in their non-conference slate, going 8-6. Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee St. are both first or second in their conference, but the Bulldogs needed to beat teams like that to make it to March. They got swept by SEC West leader Alabama and lost 65-62 to Auburn on the road. If one team gets out of the West, Alabama would hold the edge. Prognosis: Not good. Mississippi State is three games behind Alabama so passing the Crimson Tide is unlikely. The Bulldogs also have tough road tests left, going to both Kentucky and Tennessee.
Arkansas (15-9, 5-6). Best Win: Tennessee, Vanderbilt. Worst Loss: LSU, Mississippi. Arkansas had a couple of tough OT non-conference losses, to UAB and Texas A&M, that would’ve really benefited their resume. The Razorbacks have stumbled of late dropping three out of their last four before earning a split with LSU. Arkansas has a realistic chance of finish at .500 or better in conference as four of their last five SEC games are against the SEC West. Prognosis: If they would’ve beaten Texas A&M and been a couple games better in SEC play, Arkansas would be breathing easier right now. Good news for Razorback fans: the hardest remaining opponent, Kentucky, goes to Arkansas where they are 12-3 and have beaten Tennessee and Alabama. Being in the SEC West, Arkansas can’t afford to finish 8-8 or worst in conference play.
Mississippi (16-9, 4-6). Best Win: Kentucky. Worst Loss: Dayton, Mississippi St. The Rebels are coming together at the right time. They’ve won four of their last six including a win over Kentucky and a win at Arkansas. When Alabama defeated Mississippi yesterday, it put the Crimson Tide four games ahead of Mississippi in the West Division. They have a couple of solid wins in non-conference over Southern Mississippi and Penn State, but nothing that’ll grab the attention of the committee. Prognosis: Beating Alabama on the road yesterday would’ve helped. The Rebels have six SEC games left: five against the West including two against Auburn and the only East opponent is South Carolina. Mississippi probably needs to win five out of six to put themselves in the running for a bid.
Final Tally (as of Feb. 13): IN: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama. OUT: South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn. The SEC is in better position to send more teams than the Big 12, even though the Big 12 is a higher ranked conference. The middle of the SEC has taken advantage of playing the upper tier teams, where the middle teams of the Big 12 hasn’t beaten Kansas or Texas. Tennessee and Alabama have the easiest path to leave the bubble, but they need to keep winning. By no means is either of those teams in the tournament yet due to some bad non-conference losses. I think 6 bids would be the max out of the SEC, although that number could drop to as low as 4.
