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Michigan basketball is on the cusp of something almost nobody thought they could accomplish during the 2010-11 season; a trip to the NCAA tournament.
Darius Morris
During the pregame media meal prior to the Wisconsin loss, Rob and I were chatting with Michigan radio play-by-play man Matt Shepard who mentioned that nobody predicted Michigan to get to 17 wins, let alone more, a result which then seemed inevitable during our conversation. It was at that moment that I felt compelled to mention that Rob actually predicted 18 wins and I predicted 17 during our season preview. For proof, click here.
Rob and I saw something in this team that others didn’t. We saw a tremendous leader in Zack Novak (click here for more on Novak). We saw a point guard who was ready to break out in Darius Morris, though we didn’t quite expect this. A host of other factors, including the talented Tim Hardaway, Jr. had us believing that Michigan had a shot to make a tournament, but maybe not the tournament. We both had Michigan projected as NIT placers.
To say that this has been one of the most exciting seasons of Michigan basketball in a long time would be a vast understatement. We have witnessed the emergence of Hardaway as a legitimate star, teaming up with super-soph Darius Morris to become one of the top backcourts in the country down the stretch. Any time a team exceeds expectations; it is rewarding, but also leaves you wondering what rests around the next corner.
Does Michigan actually have a shot at the NCAA tournament? The short answer is yes, absolutely. So many people keep saying the opposite most likely out of force of habit, but when you break down the season; a tournament resume becomes quite clear.
Why they should make the dance
Michigan’s strength of schedule is ranked 21st. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Michigan among his last 4 in, which can only be a good thing. Their current RPI ranking is 59 and is on the rise with a matchup against the Michigan State Spartans looming on Saturday in the regular season finale. Sparty’s RPI sits at 42, so to anyone who thinks this wouldn’t be a big win for Michigan, think again.
Michigan has a lot of key wins but no true statement wins. Among the key wins are:
- beating Penn State both home and away (56 RPI)
- beating Michigan State on the road (42 RPI)
- Harvard at home (44 RPI)
- Minnesota on the road (60 RPI)
- Clemson on the road (68 RPI)
- Oakland at home (56 RPI)
Another huge factor in Michigan’s case is that they have proven that they can win on the road. The Wolverines are 5-5 in true road games, but did lose 2 on a neutral court against UTEP and Syracuse making them 5-7 away from Crisler Arena overall. Regardless, the selection committee wants to know that the teams they tap for the dance can win away from their own building and Michigan has clearly demonstrated that.
Yet another factor that lends credibility to Michigan in the committee’s eyes is that they are a hot team down the stretch. If forced to pick between two teams with similar records, one who has stumbled at the close of the season, and the other finishing strong, who do you think the committee invites? Michigan is 7-3 in their last 10 games and could finish off a tremendous late season run with a sweep of the Spartans on Saturday.
The final buoy to John Beilein’s hopes for a slot in the bracket of 68 is that they are rising to the top of one of the elite conferences in the nation. Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin are all ranked in the top 12 in RPI and Michigan has played 2 of those teams right down to the wire, losing on a buzzer beater bank shot to Wisconsin, and by just 4 to Ohio State. With a win on Saturday, Michigan will finish no lower than 5th in the Big Ten. Do you really think the committee isn’t going to take at least 6 teams from the Big 10? Me neither.
Why they might not make the NCAA tourney
The biggest black mark on Michigan’s resume is their lack of a signature win, and man have they come close! Michigan pushed Kansas to overtime and dropped the OSU and Wisconsin games mentioned above. They also lost by just 3 to a highly ranked Syracuse team early in the year when the ‘Cuse was all but unbeatable.
Had Wisconsin’s Josh Gasser not hit that errant bank shot last Wednesday night in Ann Arbor, Michigan would pretty much already be a lock. But, Gasser did hit that shot and Michigan didn’t beat any top 20 teams and that could haunt them on Selection Sunday. Good losses aren’t a published reason for nudging a bubble team ahead of others but don’t be foolish enough to think that the committee hasn’t taken note of Michigan’s ability to push the nation’s elite to the edge.
Also, it’s nice to show 20 wins on your resume and it’s almost imperative that you finish .500 in conference play. Michigan has work to do in both departments.
In the last 10 years, only a select few Big 10 teams have made the tourney with a sub .500 conference record. That makes the State game on Saturday absolutely huge as it would push Michigan to 9-9 in the conference. For those keeping score at home, they started off 1-6 in Big 10 play.
Should Michigan fall to the Spartans, something they are pretty familiar with, they will be resting at 18 wins heading into the Big 10 Tournament and would need to get two “W’s” to reach that magic number of 20. That would be a difficult task to say the least.
The Wolverines rest in the midst of a pack of Big Ten teams who all think they have a shot at the tournament, but know full well that all of them won’t make it. Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State all are tied with 8 conference wins and Minnesota has a favorable schedule in their last 2 that could push them to 8 wins as well. Michigan has one last chance on Saturday to separate from the pack. A loss to the Spartans could be very damaging.
Where they’ll end up
Based on how bad MSU looked on Sunday at home against Purdue and how hot Michigan is, I predict that Michigan gets the win on Saturday and finishes the regular season 19-12, 9-9. As for tournament hopes, much will depend on how the other three teams in Michigan’s cluster finish the season.
A quick look:
- Michigan State: they play at home v. Iowa and v. Michigan. They’ll go 1-1 in that stretch, finishing at 17-13, 9-9 and behind Michigan in the standings due to the impending Michigan regular season sweep.
- Illinois: plays at Purdue and home v. Indiana. They too will go 1-1 and finish 19-12, 9-9.
- Penn State: they have the toughest remaining schedule of the 4 cluster teams. They play home v. Ohio State and at Minnesota. My personal hunch is they go 0-2 in those games and finish 15-14, 8-10, and out of the tourney picture.
If these teams play out their games as I think they will, Michigan will finish with the exact same record as Illinois but get bumped down a slot due to the tiebreaker rules (see below for multiple team tie breaker rules). The final Big 10 standings would be:
- Ohio State
- Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Illinois
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Penn State/Minnesota and so on.
If Michigan finishes 5th in the Big 10 as I think they will, they will get a first round bye in the Big Ten Tourney as the bottom 6 duke it out in the play-in round. Michigan would then get a chance at revenge over Illinois in the 4/5 matchup in round 2. A win there and Michigan is in, book it. A loss there, and it’s going to be close, but I think they still make it in.
As character Ren McCormack (Kevin Bacon) so eloquently read from Ecclesiastes 3:4 in Footloose, “there is a time to dance”. Michigan’s time is coming.
Click here for the Michigan/Michigan State game preview
Click on the links below for some of our more recent exclusive player profiles on the M hoops team:
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Tiebreaker Info:
In the scenario described above there would be a 3-way tie for 4th place between Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State. The first tie breaker in this case is the overall record of each team against the other teams they are tied with. Illinois and Michigan would be 2-1, with Michigan State 1-3. Ultimately Illinois would edge out Michigan because they beat Wisconsin. See below for the complete breakdown:
Multiple team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).
2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents.
4. Coin toss conducted by Commissioner or designee.
