It’s only November, but the tenth-ranked USC Trojans close out their season this weekend with a home game against cross-town rival UCLA.
Because USC is in the second year of a two-year postseason ban, the Trojans, currently atop the Pac-12 South division, can’t play for the conference championship and will not go to a bowl game. For the seniors, and for some prominent juniors, this is it.
Senior Marc Tyler will play his final game as a Trojan against rival UCLA, his father Wendell's alma mater.
With the Trojans ineligible for the inaugural Pac-12 championship, the 6-5 Bruins will represent the South division in the title game thanks to Utah’s loss to Colorado on Friday. UCLA’s last game was a 45-6 shellacking of the floundering Buffs, but the Bruins are riding a four game losing streak to USC.
For UCLA’s seniors, this is their last shot to finally get an elusive victory over their archrivals. For UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, this might be his last shot to prove that the “gap” between the two programs has narrowed, as he claimed this week, rather than widened. He was on the proverbial hot seat before the season began, but somehow, in spite of themselves, the Bruins are on the cusp of the Pac-12 championship.
The Trojans are playing their best football of the season, coming off a huge upset of the Oregon Ducks in Eugene. Quarterback Matt Barkley might be playing in his final college game this Saturday; the junior has a 67.6% completion percentage, with 3,105 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions on the year. He set a new school record for touchdown passes in a single game, with six over Colorado; he held his own with Stanford’s mythic Andrew Luck; and he’s become a legitimate dark horse contender for the Heisman Trophy.
Barkley says he’s 50-50 about whether he’ll decide to leave early for the NFL or stay for another season at USC. His decision will influence that of junior left tackle Matt Kalil, another future first-rounder, who said this week he and Barkley will likely come to the same conclusion, whatever that may be.
USC’s talented young receivers are among those pulling for Barkley to return for another season. Sophomore Robert Woods, a Biletnikoff Award finalist this season, needs just four catches to break Keyshawn Johnson’s single season conference record for receptions, with 102. He should surpass that record against UCLA, since he’s had more than four catches in every game except one.
Freshman Marqise Lee was a Pac-12 Player of the Week on offense for his eight-catch, 187-yard performance against Oregon. If he gets just 81 receiving yards against the Bruins, he and Woods will become the Trojans’ fourth pair of receivers to have 1,000 yards each in a season. The two also have a shot at surpassing several of Keary Colbert and Mike Williams’ records. Six combined catches will set a new record for catches by teammates in a season, 230 yards gives them the most combined yards, and four touchdowns breaks the record for combined touchdowns.
The three-headed offensive monster that is Barkley-Woods-Lee is, theoretically at least, too much for the Bruins’ pass defense to handle. The defense has struggled against the better quarterbacks it faced this season; Arizona’s Nick Foles threw for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Luck added 227 yards and 3 touchdowns in Stanford’s win over the Bruins. UCLA senior safety Tony Dye has returned for injury, and while others, including safety Tevin McDonald, whose brother T.J. will be suited up in cardinal and gold on Saturday, have improved over the course of the year, they’ll have a tough time trying to contain one of the top receiving duos in the nation.
USC has its own weaknesses in the secondary, but the Bruins have not been a pass-heavy team this season. When the Bruins pass, look for Prince to target Nelson Rosario to go down the field and tight end Joseph Fauria on shorter yardage and scoring plays. Rosario leads the team with 48 catches for 890 yards but has just two touchdowns; Fauria has 356 yards but 6 touchdowns on the year.
Junior Kevin Prince has thrown for 1202 yards and 8 touchdowns, but he’s dangerous as a rusher as well, gashing California for 163 yards on the ground a month ago. The team is averaging almost 200 rushing yards per game, but they’ll be facing the 16th-best run defense in the country, which is allowing an average of 110.3 yards per game. In addition to Prince, UCLA’s biggest rushing threats are Johnathan Franklin, who is just shy of the 1,000 yard mark, and Derrick Coleman, who has 11 rushing touchdowns on the year.
The Bruins are better at running the ball than they are at defending the run. They’re ranked 82nd defending the rush, which could give senior running back Marc Tyler a chance to make one last statement in his USC career. Junior Curtis McNeal surpassed him as the team’s leading rusher in the second half of the season, but the Trojans have been very effective with the two sharing carries.
On paper, USC has a definitive edge, but the game isn’t played on paper, and as Trojans and Bruins know, anything can happen in a rivalry game, especially one with so much riding on it. Kickoff is at 10 p.m. EST and will be televised on FSN.
