Heisman Watch: Who’s Headed to NYC?

The official Heisman ballots are in, and on Monday, we’ll find out who made the cut to attend the award ceremony in NYC on Saturday.

There’s no set number of invites, though it’s generally the top three vote-getters. There have been instances when five players attended, but the rumors on the blogosphere suggest that either three or four players will need to start suit-shopping for this year’s ceremony.

Here are a few of the players who are likely holding their breath for Monday’s announcement:

 

Andrew Luck  - Yeah, he’s probably not holding his breath. Luck has been a shoe-in for the first pick of the NFL Draft and the Heisman since before he stepped on the turf for preseason workouts. Still, the Heisman isn’t the award for the future #1 pick; it’s for the most outstanding college football player of the season. Luck has been great, consistently, but he hasn’t been outstanding.

His completion percentage is 70% on the nose, and he threw for 3170 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. His stats are only the teensiest bit down from last season (70.7% and 3338 yards), but when he had chances to really take over the race with brilliant performances against USC and Oregon, he fell flat. He played well against USC, but not much better than Matt Barkley. Against Oregon, in arguably his biggest game of the season, Luck had his only multi-interception game of the season (2 picks) as the Cardinal lost, 53-30. Great quarterback with a great future? Absolutely. Most outstanding player of the year? Maybe not.

Robert Griffin III - After Baylor’s win over Texas in their final game of the season, RG3 might just be the new favorite. He finished the season the way he began it: with a big win in front of a national television audience. Against the Longhorns, he was 15 of 22 for 320 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, and he added two more touchdowns on the ground as the bears won, 48-24.

Baylor is just 10-3 this season, which may hurt his chances, but his stats should be more than enough to make up for it. He’s thrown for 3,998 yards, 36 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (yes, those numbers are better than Luck’s), and he has one of the highest completion percentages in the country (72.4%). He’s also rushed for 644 yards and 7 touchdowns, and in two games, he ran for more than 100 yards. He accomplished all that behind a shaky offensive line, which gave up 23 sacks.

While some of the other possible winners faltered on the biggest stages, Griffin III thrived. That big game against Texas as voters were finalizing their ballots will only help his chances at not only going to New York, but coming home with the trophy.

 

Trent Richardson - Richardson’s in the Andrew Luck category: great player, great NFL prospects, merely good season. Richardson was the top running back heading into the season, but he’s not even in the top five in rushing yards. He has 1583 and 20 touchdowns on the ground, plus 327 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. (For comparison, Oregon’s LaMichael James rushed for 1646 yards despite missing two entire games, and parts of others, due to injury.)

They’re still good numbers, and while he doubled his yardage from last year, he hasn’t given voters one brilliant performance on which to build a Heisman campaign. If he’d exploded against LSU in The Game of the Century on Nov. 5, he might be in my top two. Instead, he ran for 89 yards and had 80 receiving yards as his team lost the most watched – and most complained about – game of the year. To be truly outstanding, one has to be outstanding in all circumstances, even when you’re up against one of the toughest defenses in the nation. When he was tested, just like Andrew Luck, Richardson didn’t do much to prove he should be the next Heisman winner.

Montee Ball - Richardson gets all the RB for Heisman attention, Wisconsin’s Montee Ball has had a better season. He’s not getting the same respect because the Badgers lost two games, including a last-second loss to Michigan State, who they beat in a rematch this weekend, and were out of the national picture for much of the season. Ball has run under the radar, but he’s run far (1759 yards, plus 255 receiving) and with 38 total touchdowns, he’s just one away from breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season touchdown record.

The  two games the Badgers lost were those in which he had only two touchdowns; in every other game, he had three or more. Ball has fifteen more touchdowns than Richardson, yet because he’s on a two-loss team in the Big Ten, he’s generally considered the second-best running back to have a shot at the Heisman. It’s been a quarterback-heavy year, but there’s sure to be a running back in the mix, and it should be Ball.

 

Case Keenum - While Robert Griffin III solidified his Heisman chances with his performance this week, Keenum might’ve killed his as Houston was upset by Southern Miss in its season finale. The Cougars don’t get much tv time so Keenum hasn’t had many chances to show his stuff, and he certainly didn’t bring his A-game on Saturday. Similar high-profile flops have taken some players (Luck, Richardson) out of my personal Heisman picks, but not Keenum. He’s had enough success this year to merit an invitation.

I mean, if throwing for more than 5,000 yards, 45 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions, and setting five NCAA records, isn’t enough to get you to New York, what is? He has a 71.7% completion percentage, but his struggles in the Cougars’ lone loss (two of his five interceptions on the year came in the game) will cost him the trophy, and probably the trip to New York as well.

Kellen Moore  - Another stellar quarterback from a one-loss non-AQ school who probably won’t get the call to go to the Big Apple, though he absolutely deserves it. Moore’s completion percentage, at 74.1%, is better than any other quarterback in the running. He’s thrown for 3507 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Boise State’s one loss cost the Broncos a BCS bowl, but it shouldn’t cost Moore any Heisman votes. (It will, but it shouldn’t.)

In the loss to TCU, he completed almost 76% of his passes, going 28 of 37 for 320 yards and two touchdowns. With the team’s top receivers and rushers out due to injury, Moore still played a great game and put the Broncos in position to win. He shouldn’t be penalized because a walk-on backup kicker didn’t get it through the uprights. With a career record of 49-3, Moore is the winningest quarterback in college football history – he surpassed Colt McCoy earlier this season – and those three losses, two of which were lost by missed Boise State field goals, have been by a total of five points.

Moore has never really gotten the credit or the respect he deserves on a national level because he plays for Boise State, but he’s had an outstanding season, not just a phenomenal career, and he should at least make the list for the ceremony.

 

Matt Barkley – Barkley finally started to get some Heisman recognition a few weeks ago, when he led USC to an upset over Oregon in Eugene, but his entire season has been pretty outstanding. He tied the school record for touchdowns in a single game for the second and third times in his career before finally setting a new record, with six touchdowns against Colorado (and, later in the year, against UCLA). He set a new school record for passing yards in a single game with 468, breaking the record set by former USC Heisman winner Carson Palmer, en route to a 3,528 yard season.

His completion percentage, 69.1%, is lower than others on this list, but it’s less than a percentage point lower than Andrew Luck’s, and Barkley’s touchdown to interceptions ratio is better than Luck’s (39 touchdowns and 7 interceptions). He played well early in the season, held his own against Luck when the Trojans pushed Stanford into triple overtime, and he finally broke onto the national scene with an impressive performance against Oregon (he was equally on fire against UCLA, but on a smaller stage with only regional television coverage, it won’t do as much to help his case). He’s certainly one of the top players in the nation, but his late-season heroics might not be enough to overcome the lack of media attention early on.