We’ve reached the halfway point of the conference basketball season, and I begin our look at the Power Six conferences in the Midwest with the twelve-member Big 10. The Big 10 currently has five teams ranked in the top 25 led by the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes. As tournament time approaches, the Big 10 could get as few as five births to the NCAA Tournament, and as many as eight.
IN: Ohio State (20-3, 8-2), Michigan St. (18-5, 7-3), Wisconsin (18-6, 7-4), Michigan (17-7, 7-4), and Indiana (18-6, 6-6). Barring collapses, all five of these teams, currently ranked, seems on their way to twenty wins. Indiana looks to be the low team on this list, but I think they will receive their first NCAA bid since 2008. They’ve struggled on the road in the Big 10, but five of the last seven are at home, and they have signature wins over two of the top three teams in the nation: Kentucky and Ohio St.
OUT: Iowa (13-11, 5-6), Northwestern (14-8, 4-6), Nebraska (11-11, 3-8), and Penn St. (10-14, 2-9). Iowa has made progress under second year coach Fran McCaffery, but the Hawkeyes are still a season away for competing for an NCAA birth but owns a couple of nice wins over Wisconsin on the road and Michigan at home. Northwestern has the most dubious record in college basketball being the only team in a Power Six conference to not make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats do own a couple signature wins, home against Michigan St. and at Illinois, but would need to go at least 6-2 in their last eight games to break their dry spell.
Minnesota and Illinois find themselves both battling for an NCAA Tournament Birth and on the bubble halfway through the Big 10 Conference season.
BUBBLE: Whether the Big 10 stays at five bids or grows to eight depends upon Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota.
Illinois (16-7, 5-5, RPI: 46). BEST WINS: Gonzaga, Ohio St, Michigan St. KEY LOSSES: at Penn St, at Purdue, Northwestern. The Fighting Illini started the season 10-0, but fell to .500 in conference play with a home loss to Northwestern. The recent home loss to Northwestern gave the Illini their fourth loss in five games and now the schedule gets brutal. The Illini have Michigan twice and road games against Indiana, Ohio St, and Wisconsin.
Purdue (15-8, 5-5, RPI: 64). BEST WINS: Temple, Illinois. KEY LOSSES: Butler, at Penn St. Purdue has made the last five NCAA tournaments, but right now still clearly on the bubble. Right now, it looks like Purdue has only one win against a sure NCAA tournament team, a neutral court victory over Temple. They would need to go 5-3 over the last eight games to get to twenty wins, and they have road games against fellow bubble team Illinois along with Ohio St, Michigan, and Indiana. The Boilers also host Michigan St. who beat Purdue 83-58 in East Lansing on Jan. 21.
Minnesota (17-7, 5-6, RPI: 49). BEST WINS: at Indiana, Illinois. KEY LOSSES: Iowa (twice), Purdue. After losing senior forward Trevor Mbakwe to injury for the season in a neutral court loss to Dayton, it looked like it would be a long season for coach Tubby Smith’s Golden Gophers. They started slow going 0-4 in Big 10 play, but rebounded to win five of their last seven games. They will play five of their last seven games at home but four of those home games are against teams currently ranked: Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St, and Indiana.
The tough schedules that face the Big 10 bubble teams are both good and bad. These three teams will have ample opportunity to play themselves into the tournament. Purdue has four games remaining against ranked teams; the Illini and Gophers each have five. With a strong showing down the stretch, any of these teams can get in. My prediction as of Feb. 6th is that Purdue will get in, and Illinois and Minnesota will be left out. These three teams might be competing for one spot and the Boilers, if they can win Feb. 15 at Illinois, can go 3-0 against the other two teams.
