Next up in my look at Power Six Conferences is the conference that was the best in the land last year, the Big East Conference. The Big East sent a record 11 schools to the 2011 NCAA Tournament including the eventual champion, Connecticut. They won’t repeat with 11 bids this season but it’s another great year from the sixteen team mega conference, with four team ranked in the top 25 currently including the No. 2 team in the land, Syracuse.
IN: Syracuse (23-1, 10-1), Marquette (20-5, 9-3), Georgetown (18-4, 8-3), Notre Dame (15-8, 7-3), and Louisville (19-5, 7-4). The team from my In List that is the closest to slipping onto the bubble would be Notre Dame. Notre Dame has no dazzling non-conference victories but have been beasts in Big East play as the Irish have been the only team to defeat Syracuse this season along with a home win over Marquette and a road win over Louisville. Combined with their current fourth place in the Big East, the Irish should be dancing in March.
OUT: Providence (13-12, 2-10), DePaul (11-12, 2-9), Villanova (11-13, 4-8), St. John’s (10-13, 4-7), Rutgers (12-12, 4-7), South Florida (13-10, 6-4), and Seton Hall (15-8, 4-7). Villanova and St. John’s both made the tournament last season, but they are currently long shots to repeat. Record wise, it would seem South Florida and Seton Hall belong at least on the bubble. However, South Florida, despite being 6-4 in conference play, still needs a couple of major wins to add to the resume. All the Big East teams they beat are on my Out List. Seton Hall did start conference play 4-1 with wins over West Virginia and Connecticut, but the Pirates have lost their last six going into tonight’s game at Rutgers.
BUBBLE: Cincinnati (16-7, 6-4, RPI: 95). KEY WINS: Notre Dame, at Georgetown, at Connecticut. KEY LOSSES: Presbyterian, Marshall, at Rutgers. The Bearcats are over .500 in conference play with a couple of nice roads wins (Georgetown, Connecticut), but they have non-conference losses to a 10-13 Presbyterian team and a 14-9 Marshall team. The low RPI rating of 95 is behind Belmont, St. Bonaventure, and Kent St., to name a few. Out of the remaining eight games, Cincinnati has four on the road and four at home including two left against Marquette and a home game against Louisville. To strengthen their resume, the Bearcats probably need to win two of those three games.
West Virginia, led by Kevin Jones, is currently on our Bubble but have put themselves in strong position to leave it and secure a birth in the 2012 NCAA Tournament.
West Virginia (16-8, 6-5, RPI: 25). KEY WINS: Kansas St., Georgetown, Cincinnati. KEY LOSSES: Kent St., at Seton Hall, at St. John’s. Despite being a half game behind the Bearcats in the Big East standings, the prospects are a little brighter for Bob Huggins’ Mountaineer squad. West Virginia was strong in non-conference, outside the home loss to Kent St., and beat Cincinnati in the two teams’ only regular season meeting. West Virginia has seven games left including Notre Dame twice, Louisville, and Marquette. Three of those four games will be at home for West Virginia.
Connecticut (15-8, 5-6, RPI: 21). KEY WINS: Florida St., Harvard, at Notre Dame. KEY LOSSES: at Seton Hall, at Rutgers, at Tennessee. The defending champions find themselves in an unusual place: the bubble. However, they have two strong factors going for them: two non-conference wins over ranked teams and a top 25 RPI rating. Like last year, the Huskies can probably go 9-9 in conference and make the tournament. The last seven games, though, are daunting with Marquette at home and Syracuse twice.
Pittsburgh (15-9, 4-7, RPI: 65). KEY WINS: Georgetown, at West Virginia. KEY LOSSES: Wagner, at DePaul, Rutgers. The Panthers might be a little bit of stretch, but with their current red-hot streak I included them at the end of this Big East bubble. They seemed to have rebounded from the team that lost by 23 at home to Rutgers a little over a month ago to rattle off four straight wins including a home win over Georgetown and a road win at West Virginia. Still, the Panthers need to go at least 9-9 in Big East play, meaning they’d have to win five of their last seven before the conference tournament. Their remaining seven games include West Virginia at home and road dates with Louisville and Connecticut.
Like the Big 10 that I looked at Monday, the Big East has five bids for sure. The ceiling seems to be nine if a team like Pittsburgh can continue to play red-hot. I think out of the bubble that I presented two teams are going to come off of it for NCAA births: Connecticut and West Virginia. Although that won’t match the 11 from last season, that would be give the Big East seven bids in the upcoming NCAA tournament.
