If you are a fan of either shades of blue in the state of North Carolina this is one of the two days you wait for all season long as No. 5 AP & ESPN/USA Today North Carolina (20-3 ~ 7-1 in the ACC) plays host to its arch-rival No. 10 AP/ No. 9 ESPN/USA Today Duke (19-4 ~ 6-2 in the ACC) at the Dean Dome in what is the greatest rivalry in college basketball, if not in all sports. The game is set to tip off at 9:00 p.m. EST, televised by both ESPN, with Dan Schulman (play by play), Dick Vitale (analyst) and Jay Bilas (analyst), and ACC Network, with Tim Brando (play by play) and Dan Bonner (analyst), in what will be the 233rd meeting between these two programs, with UNC holding a 131 to 101 lead in the rivalry, 60-32 in the Smith Center. For head coach Roy Williams his main concern will be to see how much he can play Harrison Barnes (ankle injury), who is not going to be 100%, while looking to win the game and keep pace for first place in the conference.
This is going to be a very intense game for Carolina, who has won 14 games out of its last 15 as well as having won five straight by an average margin of 13.8 pts since getting embarrassed by FSU, especially when you consider that Duke has not lost back to back games since February of `09. UNC needs to snap that streak if they intend to keep up with Florida State, who already owns the tie breaker over the Heels, and have a chance to be a top see in the NCAA Tournament. Especially when you think that next up for this squad will be No. 19 Virginia. Right now most everywhere has both North Carolina and Duke as a second seed, a win tonight, as well as against UVa, should put the Tar Heels in contention for a number one seed and bump the Blue Devils a line or so. But this is all for the future, what is important is tonight, and who will win this match up.
Once again, even if it sounds redundant, for North Carolina the keys will be getting their fast break going, and if it’s not there going inside to either Tyler Zeller, who is averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.6 rpg and John Henson, (14.3 ppg, 10.0 rpg and 3.2 bpg), who is 26 points away from scoring 1,000 points at UNC, to begin their offensive set. Point guard Kendall Marshall will have to be sharper than he was against Maryland, where he had six turnovers, while dishing out the ball to his team mates as he has done all year long, while his partner in the back court, Reggie Bullock needs to be able to hit the open shoot from outside when available to give the interior players some space in the paint. If the Heels do not hit from the outside look for Duke to sag in the paint and double team inside most of the time, which could be something that they start the game and see how UNC handles it. However, as said at the top of this post, this game might just come down to how well Barnes, who is averaging over 19 pts per game in the last five and his 21 points away from having 1,000 points while at Carolina, can play in this game, since he is the one player that can take over a game if need be. His presence on the court, even if not 100% is going to be huge for Carolina, if he can play as close to healthy as possible he will be hard to handle on the offensive side, either hitting from beyond the arc or driving to the basket.
On the defensive side of the ball UNC needs to play good perimeter defense as most Duke players can hit the trifecta. This too will put a lot of pounding on the Barnes’ ankle and I would say that you will see coach Williams give the sophomore small forward some breathers, especially in the first half, to keep him as fresh as possible. Reggie Bullock, who has had good games since becoming a starter, in containing the opposition’s top shooter needs to do this as well tonight. While Marshall will need to keep Duke from penetrating the paint and dishing out to the wing, something that the Tar Heels have let too many teams do to them in the last few seasons. Finally Zeller and Henson need to own the boards and not give the big men from Durham any second chance opportunities.
When it’s all said and done, if you break down the starting five for each squad you would have to give the edge to North Carolina, even with a Barnes not fully healed. However, as we all know, the game is not played by just five players, and in this game the Carolina bench needs to come through, giving the starters a few breathers and being able to keep up the scoring while on the floor. Especially when it comes to the two most used subs, James McAdoo and P.J. Hairston, they must come through with 15+ minutes each and scoring enough to give either the bigs when it comes to McAdoo or Barnes/Bullock for Hairston not to be a liability when on the court. Can they do it? This is the biggest game they will ever play in as far as rivalry, so I am sure that both of them, even if freshmen, know how much this game means to the program, to the school, to the fan base, that they will be ready for it. I would say I might be a bit more worried if their first game of this series would be at Cameroon, as that atmosphere is hard to digest even as a senior, but with the fans on your side it should help them out immensely.
Las Vegas sees the Heels as a 6 to 7 points favorite in this one. I would say that is about right, especially since the game is in Chapel Hill, that Carolina has won a few tough road games while Duke just lost at home. In the end, after a tough game, played well by both sides, I see North Carolina taking this one by the final of 82 to 77. ESPN’s AccuScore has UNC winning this one as well, by the score of 84.1 to 79.8, while over at SCAACHoops they have Duke winning pretty big, with the final being 86 to 67.
