I throw another bounce pass coast-to-coast going from the Pac 12 to the ACC. After Duke won the National Title in the 2010 NCAA Tournament, the basketball rich ACC only put 4 teams in the 2011 Tournament. Three of those teams did make it to the Sweet 16 (Florida St., Duke, and North Carolina), but none made it farther that North Carolina to the Elite Eight. The ACC should at least match the four teams they placed in last year’s field as four teams are currently ranked led by No. #5 North Carolina.
IN: Duke (20-4, 7-2), North Carolina (20-4, 7-2), Florida St. (16-7, 7-2), Virginia (19-4, 6-3). This should be the best stretch run for the regular season ACC title in a long time. With Duke’s win over North Carolina on Wednesday, there is a three-way tie for first with N.C. State a half game back and Virginia and Miami one game back. There are six teams within a game of first place. The most surprising team in the conference may be Tony Bennett’s Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavaliers looked poised to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007.
OUT: Georgia Tech (9-15, 2-8), Wake Forest (11-13, 2-8), Virginia Tech (13-11, 2-7), Boston College (8-16, 3-7), Clemson (11-12, 3-6). It’s been a disappointing year for Virginia Tech and Clemson. Virginia Tech, one of the first teams left out of last year’s NCAA Tournament, looked strong in non-conference but has slumped to a 2-7 conference record. Clemson, one of the last team’s in last year’s tournament as a First Four participant, is behind the 8-ball to make their fifth straight NCAA Tournament with losses in six out of their last eight games.
BUBBLE: N.C. St. (18-7, 7-3, RPI: 57). KEY WINS: Texas, at Miami. KEY LOSSES: at Stanford, Georgia Tech. It may only be a matter of time before the Wolfpack go from on the bubble to into the field. However, upon further inspection, their 7-3 record in the ACC contains of a 5-1 mark against the bottom four ACC teams. The unbalanced ACC schedule that harmed Virginia Tech last season might hurt the Wolfpack’s resume this season; they only play co-leaders Duke and Florida St once. The next three games are huge for N.C. St.: they are at Duke then home against North Carolina and Florida St.
Miami, FL (15-7, 6-3, RPI: 38). KEY WINS: at Duke. KEY LOSSES: at Mississippi, at Purdue. The Hurricanes are red-hot and have played themselves onto the bubble and into contention for the ACC crown under first-year coach Jim Larranaga. They’ve won six of their last seven games including a road win at Duke to overcome a 1-3 start in ACC play, but in non-conference lost to fellow bubble teams Purdue and Mississippi. Miami still has a ranked Florida State twice and host North Carolina.
The Miami Hurricanes find themselves on the bubble out of the ACC fighting for their first tournament birth since 2008.
Maryland (14-9, 4-5, RPI: 98). KEY WINS: Colorado, Notre Dame. KEY LOSSES: Iona, at N.C. St. It is at times like this when I find RPI a little puzzling. Maryland has a more impressive non-conference slate than the two other ACC bubble teams I looked at with wins over Colorado and Notre Dame and their four losses are against teams that might all make the NCAA Tournament (Alabama, Iona, Illinois, and Temple). Their five ACC losses are against the top three teams (Duke, UNC, and Florida St.) and the two other bubble teams (Miami and N.C. St.). No bad losses, but the Terrapins need to start stockpiling wins. They’ll get a chance to add some luster to their resume: they go to Duke and North Carolina along with playing Virginia twice.
I think it’s a given, unless the unbalanced schedules play havoc again, that the ACC will place five teams into the NCAA Tournament. The four teams currently ranked look like locks. I think the fifth spot will come down to N.C. St. and Miami, FL. Feb. 29 the two teams meet in Raleigh with possibly a bid hanging in the balance. Although the RPI favors Miami, I like N.C. St. to pull down that fifth bid for the ACC.
