The last of the power six conferences to be looked at by The Bubble Report in 2012 is the SEC. The SEC is the home of the #1 team in the land, Kentucky, who will be favored to make back-to-back trips to the Final Four. Kentucky is joined by two more teams currently ranked in the top 25: Florida and Mississippi St. After that, it’s wide open as the SEC tries to match the five bids they received in last year’s NCAA tournament (Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Tennessee).
IN: Kentucky (25-1, 11-0), Florida (20-6, 8-3), Mississippi St. (19-7, 6-5). The Wildcats and Gators are locks. Mississippi St. has been ranked most of the season but might be looking at the bubble after back-to-back OT losses to Georgia and LSU. A win over Kentucky at home February 21st seals the deal.
OUT: South Carolina (9-15, 1-9), Auburn (13-12, 3-8), Georgia (12-12, 3-7), Tennessee (13-12, 5-5), LSU (15-10, 5-6). Georgia and Tennessee made the field last season, but a return trip looks out of reach. The Volunteers will snap their streak of six straight trips, but the future looks bright for first year coach Cuonzo Martin with a sweep of Florida and a win over Connecticut. LSU has a good overall record at 5 games over .500 but the Tigers have too many bad non-conference losses to make the bubble: Coastal Carolina, South Alabama.
BUBBLE: Vanderbilt (17-8, 6-4, RPI: 29). KEY WINS: at Marquette, at Alabama, N.C. St. KEY LOSSES: Cleveland St., Indiana St. The win over Marquette on the road is probably enough to push the Commodores into the field for the fifth time in six years. It overcomes two bad non-conference home losses to Indiana St. and Cleveland St. Vanderbilt plays two more ranked teams this season to put the cherry on top of the sundae: they travel to Kentucky and host Florida.
Vanderbilt is a very strong bubble team, and the Commodores will probably play their way into the 2012 NCAA Basketball Tournament.
Arkansas (17-8, 5-5, RPI: 70). KEY WINS: Mississippi St., Michigan, Vanderbilt. KEY LOSSES: Houston, at Oklahoma, at Georgia. After missing three straight NCAA tournaments, first year coach Mike Anderson has lead his team onto the bubble. To move into a spot for a birth, they probably need to finish above .500 in the SEC winning four of their last six games. The resume is strong with a huge non-conference win against Michigan who has been ranked all season overshadowing a loss to Houston.
Alabama (16-9, 5-6, RPI: 32). KEY WINS: Wichita St., Purdue, Arkansas. KEY LOSSES: at Dayton, at South Carolina, at LSU. Going in the Crimson Tide’s favor is a low RPI. However, the best SEC team they beat was Arkansas, and they are now under .500 in conference with Tuesday’s loss to Florida. Their win over the Shockers in a re-match of last year’s NIT final is bigger than you might think; the Shockers have an RPI of 17 and look as if they’ll win a tough high major conference, the Missouri Valley. Unlike Arkansas, I think Alabama can finish .500 in conference play meaning they need to go 3-2 in their last five.
Mississippi (15-9, 5-5, RPI: 50). KEY WINS: Miami, FL, Mississippi St. KEY LOSSES: at Dayton, at LSU, at Auburn. It’ll be an uphill climb for the Rebels to get off the bubble, but they have a chance. It sounds unusual but they really could of helped themselves if they beat Southern Mississippi and Middle Tennessee in non-conference. Southern Mississippi has an RPI 11; Middle Tennessee has an RPI of 38. The season might come down to the next two games for the Rebels: they host Vanderbilt then go to Kentucky.
Even if Mississippi St. faltered in the stretch, the SEC is going to get at least three bids. Vanderbilt is one of the strongest bubble teams I looked at, and they may be a week away from securing a bid. I think, like last year, the SEC will lock up five bids. Alabama will join Vanderbilt, Mississippi St., Kentucky and Florida.