I’ve looked at the six power conferences, so now only one question remains: who are the final 68? As any Bracketologist can tell you, this is a very fluid situation as upsets will litter the landscape in the next three weeks. For example, on February 6th, I felt South Florida and Seton Hall would both be out of this year’s tournament. Since then, each team has won three straight to play themselves onto the bubble. It’s going to be a wild finish like always, and I’ll try to provide a guide.
First, I look at the leagues that I think will be one-bid leagues. Of course, if the regular season’s champion doesn’t land their conference’s automatic bid, then some of these leagues could swell and take away bubble spots. Three teams to watch that have strong enough resumes to land an at-large are Murray State out of the OVC, Harvard out of the Ivy League, and Nevada out of the WAC. These teams could make the bubble smaller.
ONE BID LEAGUES (CURRENT LEADER): AMERICAN EAST (1) – Stony Brook, ATLANTIC SUN (1) – Belmont, BIG SKY (1) – Weber St., BIG SOUTH (1) – UNC-Asheville, BIG WEST (1) – Long Beach St., HORIZON (1) – Valparaiso, IVY (1) – Harvard, MAAC (1) – Iona, MEAC (1) – Savannah St., NORTHEAST (1) – LIU-Brooklyn, OHIO VALLEY (1) – Murray St., PATRIOT (1) – Bucknell, SOUTHERN (1) – Davidson, SOUTHLAND (1) – Texas Arlington, SWAC (1) – Mississippi Valley St., SUMMIT (1) – Oral Roberts, SUN BELT (1) – Middle Tennessee, WAC (1) – Nevada.
That list is 19 out of the 68 bids. The remaining 49 bids will be carved up between the six power conferences and six high majors (Atlantic 10, CAA, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and the West Coast Conference). Here is how I see the remaining bids as of Friday, February 17th, a stone’s throw away from Selection Sunday.
MULTI-BID LEAGUES: ATLANTIC 10 (2) : St. Louis, Temple. ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida St., Virginia, N.C St. BIG 12 (6): Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St. BIG EAST (8): Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, West Virginia, Cincinnati. BIG TEN (6): Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue. CAA (2): George Mason, VCU. C-USA (3): S. Mississippi, Memphis, UCF. MISSOURI VALLEY (2): Wichita St., Creighton. MOUNTAIN WEST (3): New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego St. PAC 12 (3): California, Washington, Arizona. SEC (6): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi St., Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas. WEST COAST (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU.
Over the next few weeks, I will be focused on the bubble. Like I said earlier, there can still be a lot of change in the field before Selection Sunday. In no particular order, here are the final twelve teams in and the first twelve teams out.
FINAL TWELVE IN: VCU, UCF, Kansas St., Texas, N.C. St., Cincinnati, Arkansas, Alabama, Purdue, Washington, Iowa St., Arizona.
FIRST TWELVE OUT: Xavier, Miami, FL, South Florida, Seton Hall, Illinois, Minnesota, Drexel, Wyoming, Colorado St., Colorado, Oregon, Mississippi.