Horse Racing: Full Analysis of the 2012 Kentucky Oaks

With all do respects to the Breeders Cup, this weekend is the most exciting weekend in the sport of Horse Racing. Between the 2012 Kentucky Oaks on Friday, and the 2012 Kentucky Derby on Saturday and both at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, I can’t think of another weekend that gets the butterflies going in my stomach as much as these two races. A full field of 15 fillies are entered for the Kentucky Oaks which, year after year, does nothing but gain momentum and notoriety amongst it’s everyday fans and it’s popularity has now even spread to the casual fan. This year, the Oaks is led by the streaking Broadway’s Alibi and the talented Grace Hall.

Just to give you an idea on how the Oaks has grown over the years, the 1980 running of the Oaks (won by Bold N’ Determined) drew about 50,000 people. The 1989 running (won by Hall of Famer Open Mind), drew about 67,000 people. Then every year since 2001, the attendance at Churchill Downs for the Oaks has been over 100,000 people.

Run every year since 1875, The list of winners over the years is who’s who of great fillies. Cicada (1962), Dark Mirage (1967), Davona Dale (1979), Heavenly Cause (1981), the great Princess Rooney (1983), Silverbulletday (1999), Ashado (1994), Rags to Riches (2007), Blind Luck (2010) just skim the surface of some of the names.

But perhaps, in my opinion, the greatest performance in the Kentucky Oaks belongs to none other than Rachel Alexandra in 2009. I wont say a word, just watch the reply I posted below.

 

Churchill Downs – May 4, 2012

Race 11 – 5:45 PM

Kentucky Oaks (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000

One And One Eighth Miles

 

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	On Fire Baby	3/F	LA	J M Johnson	121	G G Hartlage	4/1
2	2	Grace Hall	3/F	LA	J Castellano	121	AW Dutrow	5/2
3	3	Summer Applause	3/F	LA	G K Gomez	121	W B Calhoun	15/1
4	4	Eden‘s Moon	3/F	LA	M Garcia	121	B Baffert	12/1
5	5	Hard Not to Like	3/F	LA	R Albarado	121	G Cox	20/1
6	6	Broadway’s Alibi	3/F	LA	J R Velazquez	121	T A Pletcher	4/1
7	7	Sacristy	3/F	LA	M E Smith	121	W M Catalano	50/1
8	8	Jemima’s Pearl	3/F	LA	J Talamo	121	B Baffert	10/1
9	9	Believe You Can	3/F	LA	R Napravnik	121	J L Jones	10/1
10	10	And Why Not	3/F	LA	J R Leparoux	121	M R Matz	15/1
11	11	Karlovy Vary	3/F	LA	J Graham	121	G R Arnold, II	20/1
12	12	Colonial Empress	3/F	LA	CS Nakatani	121	D W Lukas	50/1
13	13	Amie’s Dini	3/F	LA	J K Court	121	R Moquett	10/1
14	14	Yara	3/F	LA	J L Castanon	121	J Garoffalo	30/1
15	15	Oaks Lily	3/F	LA	R Bejarano	121	T A Hills	50/1

 

Analysis (By Post Position Order)

 

PP#1- On Fire Baby- this grey filly is four for six in her career overall and she is two for two over the Churchill Downs surface. But what’s more impressive is that both of those wins were graded stakes wins. She won the Pocahontas Stakes last October while closing from fifth down the stretch, then came right back (a month later) and won the Golden Rod Stakes in a blow out (by six lengths) while showing good early speed and leading all the way around. Versatile, likes the track, and her prep race (win) for this was her best performance to date…..lots to like here.

 

PP#2- Grace Hall- super nice filly by Empire Maker is also four for six in her career and has never been worse than second in any of her races. Yet another who has a versatile running style and can adapt to any pace scenario. She is coming off a huge win in her prep for this (won the Gulfstream Park Oaks by 6 lengths) and I really like the way trainer Anthony Dutrow has brought her along. With the injury to superstar My Miss Aurelia, she is poised to take over as the top three year old filly in the land, but she’ll need to handle the #6 horse in this race first….which doesn’t appear to be a small task.

 

PP#3- Summer Applause- late running filly is as consistent as the day is long as she’s been first or second in five of six lifetime starts. Comparing her speed figures from last year to this year, she’s definitely improved. She has also recorded some strong works over the past several weeks and it looks as though she will get the fast early pace she will need in order to be effective too. Overall, I won’t be surprised if she runs well.

 

PP#4- Eden’s Moon- put herself on the map by annihilating maidens (she won by 11 on the engine), then came back just two months later, and in just her third career start, to win a grade: I race (both at Santa Anita). She did, however, disappoint at 1-2 odds in her last but might bounce back with a good effort Friday.

 

PP#5- Hard Not To Like- actually she is hard to like…well…as far as winning this race anyway. This filly by the gorgeous Hard Spun has yet to race on the conventional dirt as out of her six starts, five have been on grass and the other was on synthetics, so we really don’t know how or even if she will like the surface. Remember, (even though this rule has beaten me more times than I care to mention), never bet on a horse who is being asked to do something he or she has never done before. I’m going to pass and hope she doesn’t win and light up the tote board like a Christmas tree.

 

PP#6- Broadway’s Alibi-after a good closing second in her debut back in August of 2011, this Vindication filly has been nothing short of spectacular. She won her next four starts by a combined 32 lengths…in other words….they haven’t been remotely close to her. She has all the makings of a superstar (breeding, God given speed and talent and a trainer who’s had a few good horses in his day). I’m not sure I understand the opening odds on her (4-1 on the morning line?…I was thinking 9-5 or 2-1). The only thing I see is she’s never been this distance (nine furlongs), but she handled eight furlongs with no problem whatsoever.

 

PP#7- Sacristy-$125,000 Fasig-Tipton sales yearling is another consistent filly as she’s never been off the board in six lifetime starts. Closes, but she was almost 19 lengths behind Broadway’s Alibi the first and only time they met. I know that race was in the slop but still…I don’t see her making up those 19 lengths …a couple maybe…but certainly not 19. I’ll be passing on her come Friday afternoon.

 

PP#8- Jamima’s Pearl- it took her four starts to break her maiden and she seems to be improving slowly. Her claim to fame is coming third in the Fantasy Stakes in her last start on April 11 and although that was a good performance I just don’t think she is good enough to contend in this race…..next.

 

PP#9 – Believe You Can- is one of those all or nothing type horses as she either wins or runs up the track as her 8-5-0-0 race would indicate. She did win the Fair Ground Oaks in her last but almost blew a clear led in the process (she turned for home with a 3 ½ length lead but won by a head). She should be on or at least near the early lead but I don’t see her hanging around at the end.

 

PP#10- And Why Not- I’ll tell you why not….because other than her maiden race, where she won by 5, and in the aforementioned Pocahontas Stakes (On Fire Baby) where she came flying home after circling the field seven wide, she’s done absolutely nothing in her career. That includes her last race where she was beaten 16+ lengths by Grace Hall. I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.

 

PP#11- Karlovy Vary- she won an optional claimer race in her 2012 debut, before pulling an upset (15-1) in the prestigious Ashland Stakes in her last, so she is 2 for 2 this year. She is clearly a better horse than she was last year but the part that bothers me is of her six career starts, four have been on the grass, one (the Ashland win) was on synthetics and the other (which was at this track) on conventional dirt, she was beaten over 12 lengths by On Fire Baby. She doesn’t show me enough to merit winning one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, three year old filly race in this country.

 

PP#12- Colonial Empress- is 0 for 3 in her career, which means she is still a maiden. Hold on, a maiden winning the Kentucky Oaks??….sorry….I just can’t see that regardless of her past performances.

 

PP#13- Amie’s Dini- this filly is absolutely a better horse this year than last and just think you could have had her $3,000. When the hammer fell at the Keeneland September Yearling Sales in 2010 that was the price they paid for her. Being that she’s earned almost $184,000, I’d say she was a good investment….wouldn’t you? Anyway, she shows three seconds and a win in four 2012 starts. One of them was a solid second behind On Fire Baby in the Honeybee Stakes. Yet another who should be either battling for the early lead or close to it and I wont be shocked if she is hanging around late in this race.

 

PP#14- Yara- she caught Grace Hall when she was not at her best and sprung an upset (65-1) in the Davona Dale Stakes in Florida back in February. She appears to be a “need the early lead” type filly to be effective and with a lot of other speed signed up in this race, I don’t like her chances.

 

PP#15- Oaks Lily- is 1 for 8 in her career and seven of those races were against maidens. Ok, honestly….I’m not sure what she is even doing in this race, I wouldn’t bet her with your money.

 

Selections:

1) Broadway’s Alibi

2) Grace Hall

3) On Fire Baby

Honorable Mentions:

Summer Applaud

Eden’s Moon

 

2012 Record: 6-21 (29%)