Horse Racing: Previews of the 2012 Haskell Invitational and Jim Dandy Stakes

There is little doubt that I’ll Have Another is the pro-tem three year old male division leader based on his impressive wins in the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. If any other three year old is going to jump up and knock him off his throne, they will have to have a big second half of the year. Union Rags put himself in a position to due so before he, like I’ll Have Another, was injured and retired (more on that later).

The second half of the season, and the search for a possible  predecessor for I’ll Have Another, starts this weekend in the sport of Horse Racing as we will be focusing on two key races  for three year old males. The first is the 2012 Jim Dandy at Saratoga in upstate New York on Saturday that features Alpha, who is listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite and the other is the 2012 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on Sunday, which will feature several elite three year old males in Gemologist, Dullahan and Paynter.

Other important races being run this weekend include the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on Saturday. The 1 1/16^th’s miles, $200,000 event shows seven year old gelding Rail Trip, who even though has banked over $1 million in his career, seems to be on a steady decline in form since early last year, vs. Prayer for Relief, who is 0 for 5 this year but has hit the board in four of those outings, and Tres Borrachos, who isn’t lighting the world on fire either as his 2 for 10 record over the past two years would indicate. Also entered is Take Control, the first son out of 2002 Horse of the Year Azeri, who will make his second start after a 2 ½ year layoff.

On the undercard of the Jim Dandy is the 2012 Grade: I Diana Stakes. The one and one eighth miles Grade 1 race for $600,000 might be the most competitive race of the entire weekend.

Defending Diana champion Zagora will take on former Breeders Cup Filly Turf winner Tapitsfly as well as the explosive Winter Memories (who is also the 9/5 morning line favorite) and Hungry Island, who shows 12 on the board finishes out of 13 career starts.

That, readers, should be a heck of a horse race. As far as betting on the race, I’m not touching it. That being said, I do think that late burst of speed that Winter Memories possesses is quite special.

Then on Sunday at Del Mar is the Grade: 1 Bing Crosby Stakes where the wickedly fast The Factor will, once again, take on 2011 Champion Sprinter Amazombie.

The last time these two squared off was back in February at Santa Anita in the San Carlos Stakes, where The Factor had it all his own wayand wired the field that day while Amazombie had to settle for 3rd. This one figures to be an interesting rematch.

 

Saratoga – July 28, 2012

Race 10 – 5:45 PM  

Jim Dandy Stakes (Grade II)

Purse $600,000. For Three Year Olds

One And One Eighth Miles.

 

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Alpha	3/C	L	R A Dominguez	119	K P McLaughlin	5/2
2	2	Fast Falcon	3/C	L	R Napravnik	117	N P Zito	10/1
3	3	Atigun	3/C	L	J R Leparoux	117	K G McPeek	8/1
4	4	Neck ‘n Neck	3/C	L	L R Goncalves	119	I R Wilkes	3/1
5	5	My Adonis	3/C	L	J Castellano	117	K J Breen	20/1
6	6	Teeth of the Dog	3/C	L	J Rosario	121	M R Matz	5/1
7	7	Liaison	3/C	L	M Garcia	119	B Baffert	7/2
8	8	Prospective	3/C	L	J R Velazquez	121	M E Casse	12/1

 

 Analysis:

1) Alpha- wound up being a pretty serious Kentucky Derby contender this year off wins in the Count Fleet and Withers Stakes at Aqueduct this spring. But after a bad break in the Derby this Bernardini colt finished twelfth, beaten over 19 lengths.

Afterwards trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (smartly) backed off and gave this horse three months off and (brazenly) brings him back in this spot

You have to think he’s fit after two very strong works (July 7- four furlongs in :47.1 and July 14- five furlongs in :58.4).

He undoubtedly has had the best spring of everyone in the field…but this is summer. Has anyone caught up to him maturity wise? If they haven’t he should win this, if they have…well…then…

2) Prospective- this guy caught my attention in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs back in March, where he was headed down the stretch yet, dug in, fought back to get the lead and hold on to win that race.

Albeit, he suffered two bad losses after that when he was a disappointing sixth in the BlueGrass and a dismal 18^th (after clipping heels early) in the Kentucky Derby, he has won his last to races (The Victoria Park at Woodbine and the Grade: III Ohio Derby) pretty convincingly and by speed figures, he ran his two best career races.

I expect this $250,000 yearling  by Malibu Moon to run well on Saturday afternoon.

3) Neck n’ Neck- appears to have found himself while coming into this race off back to back impressive wins.

He blitzed an allowance field, (by 6 ½ lengths) then bounced back to romp in the Grade: III Matt Winn Stakes (by 7 1/4 lengths) both at Churchill Downs. All of that coming after registering just one lifetime win in his prior eight starts.

He has the speed figures to contend, a nice :59.2 five furlong work this past week and will probably be in a stalking position early….lots to like here.

Honorable Mentions:

Teeth of the Dog, see Neck n’ Neck, as he too has improved leaps and bounds in his last two races with very nice wins in the Easy Goer and Dwyer Stakes. Michael Matz trainee by Bluegrass Cat might run well in his Saratoga debut.

Liaison, I have to tell you, this horse has me completely confused. He had a head turning year last year, but had a horrible late winter and spring. During that time period he had four races all told. One he didn’t even finish the race, and was beaten handily in the other three. I thought maybe he was returning to form with his last two races with a “just missed” second on the Affirmed Stakes and fast closing third in his next race (the Swaps Stakes).

However, when I looked closer I noticed that the upward turn in form came when he got back on the Hollywood Park (synthetic) surface. Looking back further, I noticed his four bad races came over Santa Anita (traditional dirt surface). But wait, he owns a win at Santa Anita, albeit it was a year and half ago, a win is a win.

So which is it? Is he rounding back into form or does he just prefer the synthetic surfaces? Hell, I’m not sure, that’s why I can’t back him with any confidence.

 

 

Monmouth Park – July 29, 2012

Race 13 – 6:17 PM    

Haskell Invitational Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000, For Three-Year-Olds.

One And One Eighth Miles

 

PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer
1	Nonios	3/C	L	C S Nakatani	118	J Hollendorfer	7/2
2	Dullahan	3/C	L	K J Desormeaux	120	D L Romans	3/1
3	Paynter	3/C	L	R Bejarano	118	B Baffert	3/2
4	Gemologist	3/C	L	J Castellano	120	T A Pletcher	3/1
5	Handsome Mike	3/C	L	M Gutierrez	118	D F O’Neill	15/1
6	Stealcase	3/C	L	S Bridgmohan	118	M E Casse	8/1

 

Analysis:

1) Paynter- set the entire pace in the Belmont Stakes in his last and almost held on to win in a very gutsy effort. But what makes it more impressive was that was just his fifth lifetime start

So let’s see, he is barely beaten by probably the second best three year old in the land, while going a mile and a half, in just his fifth career outing? I mean, you have to be a good horse to do that….and probably good enough to beat these too.

2) Gemologist- was undefeated heading into the Kentucky Rodeo..I mean Derby. He raced close up to the pace that day but faded badly late. It was discovered he had bruised his foot during the running of that race and that could possibly explain the lackluster performance.

Five for six in his career, shows a monster work last week for this race (5F- :58.4) and can adapt to any pace scenario. A huge threat to win it all….

3) Dullahan- this absolutely gorgeous chestnut won the Bluegrass Stakes and then closed like the proverbial freight-train down the stretch of the Kentucky Derby to finish a close third. But after skipping the Preakness, this horse totally bombed in the Belmont Stakes when finishing a disappointing seventh. Not sure what to make of him, he visually looks great and can close well at times, but the fact still remains he is just 2 for 10 lifetime in his career.

Honorable Mentions:

Nonio is three for five lifetime while never finishing off the board. He won the Affirmed Handicap two races back and then ran a solid second to Blueskiesandrainbows in the Swaps Stakes. He looks like he might be sitting on a big race and it also looks as though the track oddsmaker (he listed this horse at just 3 ½ to 1 on the morning line) agrees with me.

Record: 11-36= 31%

 

Little Bets N’ Pieces:

****Jockey John Velazquez finished fourth aboard Lucky Friend in the 5th race atSaratoga on Wednesday, his first mount back since breaking his collarbone in a spill at Churchill Downs on June 16.

“I was a little bit anxious to be out there,” Velazquez said. “Once I got there, it was very good. It’s wonderful to be here and happy. With the way the fans reacted, it was very nice. (Physically), I felt very good. Actually, I am better than I thought I was going to be after the race. I greatly appreciate the way the fans reacted. I am happy to be here. It feels great to be here.”…

**** Speaking of the Haskell, 2011 Haskell winner Coil returned to action Thursday a winner at Del Mar in a $78,000 allowance race.

Coil rallied from slightly off the pace to run down the leader in mid stretch and win by a length in 1:22.2 for seven furlongs. No plans for his next race were announced yet.

**** 2008 Champion Three Year Old Big Brown, who stands at Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky, will not be returning to Australia for the upcoming 2012 Southern Hemisphere breeding season. The docile yet very handsome bay horse sustained a laceration to a hind leg, which, although not serious, did become infected.

Veterinary advice has recommended against shuttling the horse, as the extensive travel and quarantine process would not be conducive to his recovery.

“Those who’ve been around Big Brown for any length of time know him to be a good-natured horse, which makes him a good patient,” said Three Chimneys president Case Clay. “While his initial injury didn’t affect his ability to cover mares, looking out for his best interest, shuttling would not be conducive to his recovery.” 

 

**** Upon further review, 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags has been retired adviser to owner Phyllis Wyneth, Russell Jones said last week.

“I spoke to Phyllis Wyneth about two hours ago,” Jones said. “She discussed it with Jamie (her husband) and it was all about the risk factor. This was a time to make the tough decision. The horse is very much in the limelight as far as breeders go at this moment, and they felt like it would be a challenge and a risk to be back in this position next year.”

Dixie Union colt had been sidelined for the rest of the year after a small lesion in the middle of the suspensory of his left front leg. The injury was detected last week as he was training for a start in Saturday’s Haskell Invitational. Jones said the owner was searching for a stud deal.

“There was a lot of risk involved because if they did not get him back to where he is now, it would be at a significant cost,” said Jones. “This is all I was told.”

 

**** The unbeaten and still reigning Horse of the World Frankel could face as many as seven rivals when he bids for a second consecutive win in the QIPCO Sussex Stakes next Wednesday at Goodwood Racecourse in England.

Frankel, who won the Sussex among four Group 1 wins in 2011, has won both of his starts this year to run his record to a perfect 11-for-11. The drop dead gorgeous four-year-old Galileo colt opened the season with a five-length score in the JLT Lockinge Stakes before blowing out his rivals (by 11 lengths) in the Queen Anne Stakes June 19 at Royal Ascot.