Horse Racing: Closer Looks at the 2012 Arlington Million and Alabama Stakes’

Two major races in the sport of Horse Racing this weekend that both will most likely have a say in the year end championship voting. First, we will be looking at the 2012 Arlington Million at Arlington Park on Saturday with Phipps Stable’s Boisterous installed as the 4-1 morning line favorite and the 2012 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga Racetrack in upstate New York where, with the absence of Believe You Can and My Miss Aurelia, pro-tem three year old filly division leader Grace Hall will look to solidify her status.

Believe You Can had been working toward the Alabama Stakes, but will instead be given some time off and sent to Airdrie Stud near Midway, Ky for some R & R.

“We noticed in her last couple of works, she didn’t quite have the same zip,” said her trainer Larry Jones-trained filly. “She didn’t work badly, but for her, she normally works brilliantly and the last couple works were not brilliant works.”

Believe You Can’s first two works atSaratogawere five furlongs in1:02on August 6 and the same distance on August 12 1:02 were deemed “dull”.

“There is really nothing physically wrong with her,” Jones said. “It’s just that ever since we broke her as a yearling, she has been in constant training. We did not give her the normal break because she was running so well and she didn’t appear to need it.

“But the next morning after the last work, she acted like she had just run a race. So I think we pushed her a little too much.”

Jones said there is no time frame on when they will put her back in training.

“We’ll be watching her and when she starts acting like she’s ready to go back to the track, that’s where we’ll go,” he said. “Her knees and ankles are in great shape and she’s got everything going for her.”

“Maybe she’ll be ready for Breeders’ Cup; maybe she won’t,” he said. “Maybe she won’t be ready till next spring. But we think her future is still exceptionally strong

Other races to keep an eye on this weekend include the $750,000 Beverly D. (the race right before the Million) for fillies and mares on the turf. Marketing Mix, who is 3 for 4 this year, is the 3-1 morning line favorite.

Out at Del-Mar is the $300,000 Del Mar Oaks for three year old fillies. A field of  10 will lineup for the 1 1/8 miles event on the turf and I like Lady of Shamrock, a winner of 3 of her last 4 and 5 of 9 in her career, in that one.

On the shore,of New Jersey, Monmouth Park will be running the $150,000 Philip H. Iselin Stakes. The Grade: IIIrace will be run at 1 1/8^th miles and features, for what I see, three key contenders in Gourmet Dinner, Eldaafer, and Toby’s Corner.

Lastly, the race before the Alabama (at Saratoga) is the $600,000 Sword Dancer. That race is a Grade: I marathon (1 ½ miles) that should be very competative.  It will pit the speedy Turbo Compressor vs. although off form of late, Brilliant Speed vs. a streaking Point of Entry.

Arlington Park – August 18, 2012

Race 11 – 5:44 PM    

Arlington Million Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000.

For Three-Year-Olds and Upward

One And One Quarter Miles. (Turf)

 

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Rahystrada	8/G	L	J R Leparoux	126	B G Hughes	8/1
2	2	Boisterous	5/H	L	J Lezcano	126	C R McGaughey III	4/1
3	3	Afsare	5/G	L1	K Fallon	126	L M Cumani	6/1
4	4	Little Mike	5/G	L	R A Dominguez	126	D L Romans	6/1
5	5	Colombian	4/C	L1	W T Buick	126	J H Gosden	8/1
6	6	Treasure Beach	4/C	L	J P Spencer	126	A P O’Brien	6/1
7	7	Willcox Inn	4/C	L	J Graham	126	M Stidham	12/1
8	8	Wigmore Hall	5/G	L	H Turner	126	M L Bell	12/1
9	9	Crackerjack King	4/C	L1	C O’Donoghue	126	M Botti	5/1
10	10	Cherokee Lord	5/G	L	F C Torres	126	C Livesay	30/1
11	11	Vertiformer	5/H	L	J Sanchez	126	W M Catalano	20/1

 

Analysis:

1) Boisterous- if you bet this horse you may want to do a rain dance first. This bay horse by super sire Distorted Humor owns seven wins (out of 15 starts) on the grass but six of those wins were on something other than a “firm” turf course.

This stretch runner from the Shug McGaughey barn shows two strong works since his last race and has never been off the board in three starts at this distance. He is my tepid choice in a fairly wide open renewal of America’s first million dollar race

 

2) Little Mike- this speedster has won an astounding 10 of 14 career races on the turf and, once again, will be on the lead early just like he’s been in his previous nine straight races.

The old adage “pace makes race” definitely applies to him in this spot. If he is allowed to lope along on an uncontested early lead, he probably will be long gone late and they’ll never catch him.

I’m just a little concerned about the distance….he’s being asked to run further than he’s ever run before in one of the premier grass races in the country.

 

3) Crackerjack King- is making his US debut and you have to respect a horse that won seven of nine career outings regardless of where he’s run (Italy mostly).

That last race, (The Coral Eclipse in England July 7) where he finished fifth, beaten over 11 lengths doesn’t look as bad as you think. First off, it was run on over a turf course that had some give in it (this horse obviously performs his best over firm grass surfaces), plus he was in there against the fleet Nathaniel.

He meets no such rival in this race….on paper, it certainly appears he has a strong chance here.

 

Honorable Mentions;

Rahystrada can pop a big race now and again as he demonstrating by beating the top pick in his last race (The Arlington Handicap, July14). This now eight year old chestnut gelding has 13 (of 35) career wins on the grass and is another who merits respect in this spot. Willcox Inn, when this horse is right, he usually wins by daylight and when he’s wrong he loses by daylight. Even though he shows a .500 batting average on the turf (4 for 8 lifetime) I’m not enamored with the win one, lose one pattern he’s shows in his last several races. If he is “right” Saturday he should make some noise in this race, I’m just not one for betting inconsistent horses. Vertiformer has come over from France and has shown a good closing run in all three of his US  races. Please note he was beaten less than three lengths to both Boisterous and Rahystrada in his last race…closes and 20-1 morning line odds looks quite generous for him….longshot possibilty?

 

Saratoga – August 18, 2012

Race 10 – 5:46 PM    

Alabama Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $600,000.

For Fillies Three Years Old

One and One Quarter Miles

 

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Sea Island	3/F	L	J Rosario	121	C R McGaughey III	12/1
2	2	Zo Impressive	3/F	L	R Maragh	121	T Albertrani	5/1
3	3	Grace Hall	3/F	L	J Castellano	121	A W Dutrow	7/5
4	4	Uptown Bertie	3/F	L	C J Lanerie	121	S Margolis	20/1
5	5	Via Villaggio	3/F	L	C S Nakatani	121	J Hollendorfer	8/1
6	6	Questing	3/F	L	I Ortiz, Jr.	121	K P McLaughlin	5/2
7	7	In Lingerie	3/F	L	J R Velazquez	121	T A Pletcher	6/1

 

Analysis:

1) Grace Hall- this daughter of Empire Maker is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite and rightfully so as she is coming off a powerful 3 ½ length score in the Delaware Oaks a little more than a month ago. In that race she was forced to go four wide on the turn for home yet still won comfortably and earned an eye popping 105 Speed Figure in the process.

The three year old filly division is deep this year and, albeit I still believe My Miss Aurelia is the best horse in that division, this filly is right up there among the elite.

She’s never finished off the board (five wins, two second and a third) in now 8 lifetime starts and workouts look good too.

 

2) Questing- has improved leaps and bounds since changing surfaces (grass to dirt). She comes into this race sharp as a tack with dominating wins in an optional claimer race (leading all the way and winning by 3 ¾’s lengths) and the Grade: I Coaching Club American Oaks (once again, she led all the way in that one to win by over four lengths).

Definitely dangerous in this spot but I’m a little troubled by the almost right turn she made coming down the stretch in the CCAO. (Daily Racing Form comment line reads “drifted out badly late”).

 

3) Zo Impressive- is a nice filly as she’s never been worse than second in now six lifetime starts. I expect her to take back early and make her move on the turn for home.

She should hit the board in this race as well, but the win it? Unlikely as she’s been beaten fair and square by both the top pick (earlier this year) and my second pick (in her last race.).

 

Honorable Mentions:

In Lingerie is another nice filly that shows three wins, a second and a third from five lifetime starts. I love her versatility as she can win from on or off the pace but she, too, has already been beaten by Zo Impressive (twice) and Questing. That being said it would be no surprise if she runs big on Saturday afternoon.

Record: 14-40= 35%

 

Little Bets N’ Pieces:

 

**** Horse of the World Frankel is scheduled to make his next start in the August 22 Juddmonte International Stakes which is opening day of York’s four-day Ebor meet.

Twice Over, who has won four Group 1 races in his career and the defending Juddmonte champion, is also scheduled to run which in turn adds a little more interest to the race.
 

 

**** Acclamation, a champion last year and a winner of seven straight races came out of last Monday’s workout with a slight swelling in the area of the left front ankle that will prevent a title defense in the $1 million, Grade 1 Pacific Classic on August 26, according to owner/breeder E.W. “Bud” Johnston.

“Three days ago we were thrilled with the way he was looking and acting, then he came out of a gallop with a slight filling,”Johnstonsaid. “It might just be a lousy little strain, but it could develop into something serious and it’s probably going to keep us out of the Pacific Classic. We’re only concerned about what’s right for the horse.”

“He had some heat in a pastern,” trainer Don Warren said early last Wednesday morning. “It could be a minor infection, but we’re having it checked out. We’ll just have to wait and see until we get a report from the vets later this morning or this afternoon.”
 

 

**** Superstar in the making alert:… Did you folks see Spurious Precision in last weekend’s Saratoga Special? If you didn’t here it is again, watch how he is challenged early in the race (while ripping off a :21.1 first quarter mile and a :44 second half mile) by Southern Honor and again late by Drum Roll before finding more and driving clear to a five-length win under Alan Garcia. The son of High Cotton got 6 ½ furlongs in a quick 1:16 2/5 to earn his first stakes win.