Philadelphia Phillies storyline: Playoff deception

The task is less daunting than it appears for Jimmy Rollins and the Philadelphia Philies.  But is there enough time on the clock to sneak into the postseason party?  Remember, the poll for Masked September is here, if you haven’t voted yet.

TAL’S HANDY CAPS

 

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Check out:  Philadelphia Phillies storyline: Believe (NEW)

 

CAP-SIZE HINDSIGHT:    3-2 Triumph In Game 1

TYPE
PLAYER
REASON
The Crystal Champagne ToastKyle KendrickFour-Star Performance
The Penthouse Juan Pierre
Chase Utley
Kevin Frandsen
Ryan Howard
Chooch Ruiz

Kyle Kendrick
Antonio Bastardo
* Smoked A Triple & Scored In The 1st For A 1-0 Game
* An RBI Groundout In The 1st
Homered For A 2-1 Advantage In The 3rd
** A Solo Blast In The 4th For A 3-1 Score
**A Solo Bomb To Open A 4-1 Lead In The 4th
During A 2 For 3 Night With A BB & 2 RBI
6.2 Strong Innings
A Solid 8th-Inning Hold
Greenhouse Cholley's BatsJuan Pierre* Tripled & Scored On A Groundout In The 1st
The Animal HouseRyan Howard
Ryno & Chooch
** 3 Straight Games With A HR
** Consecutive Homeruns In The 4th

 

Above Asterisk ( *) = Corresponding Play & Event

 

CAP-SIZE HINDSIGHT:    7-4 Triumph In Game 2

TYPE
PLAYER
REASON
The Crystal Champagne ToastDarin RufFour-Star Performance
The PenthouseB.J. Rosenberg

Darin Ruf
Escaped A Bags-Full, 1-Out Jam In The 2nd
Picked-Off A Runner At 1st To End The 4th
* Hit A Solo HR To Take A 1-0 Lead In The 4th
* Smoked An 0-2 HR, Closing The Score To 3-2 In The 8th
During His 2 For 4 Night
The Fun House Of MirrorsAllFog Game #1 For 2012
The OuthouseHP UmpA SB On A Questionable Foul Tip In The 5th
The Animal HouseDarin Ruf* A 2 HR Night

 

 

Chase Scores In The 3rd Inning Of Game 1

 

 

NITECAP INSIGHT

 

 

 

 

The New Math:

 

There are other determining factors that are overlooked, while the dog-eared thinking for serious October baseball remains intact. The wild-card era has altered the dynamic, but the mentality hasn’t changed since there were two 8-team leagues. Back then there were fewer organizations in the mix, but now with a 5th qualifying berth, the quantity of collapses required per campaign has not increased. It only gives that impression erroneously. The chart below indicates a hypothetical outcome where clubs basically play .500 ball during their next 3 series. I took into consideration all 2, 3 and 4 game matchups during that period, where one of the mentioned squads plays another. That means these are realistic possibilities.

Ryno Holds Onto The Throw During The 6th Inning Of Game 1

There are differences with one or two extra playoff positions, canceling out some old benchmarks. Additional franchises equal more head-on competition among the hopefuls, which dramatically increases the odds for the .500 mark. This is why there have been more collapses and surprising comebacks during the last 5 years–not just 1 every 10-20 seasons. That stated, the red pinstripes have 10 total battles against the Fish, the ‘Stros and the Mets. So, the formula switches to the hot contender among the group in the next 9-10 contests. The thinking is that only one might catch fire besides the Phils with their favorable schedule.

 

Projected Next 3 Series:

Games against:  CON = Contenders, BAL = Also-Rans, GB = Games Behind, and GMS = Games Remaining After

TEAM
W - L
CON
BAL
W - L
W - L
GB
GMS
Cards75-654065 - 580-70-----12
Dodgers74-679005 - 479-711.012
Pirates72-673065 - 477-712.014
Phillies69-710108 - 277-733.012
Brewers69-716035 - 474-754.513
D-backs69-725034 - 473-766.513

 

 

Ryno Singles In 2 During The 5th Inning Of Game 2

In the past there were the postseason bound and the spoilers, but now there is a third classification, where the locals find themselves. The also-rans will play the in-it teams tougher than other fringe units, which means that Cholley’s boys have 10 games against competition that doesn’t see a foe worthy of an upset. Meanwhile, the hometown 9 performs at their peak level, like Atlanta. In other words, Miami will be more up for the Braves than the Phillies. Those organizations will also gauge their young talent more against perceived long shots. That’s why the next 10 battles are key before the final two weeks.

All the other contenders have flaws and are beatable. I will evaluate each tomorrow. For the red pinstripes, Chooch Ruiz in the 5 spot strengthens the lineup. Antonio Bastardo, reversing his fortunes, and Phillippe Aumont solidify the setup role. Jeremy Horst and Josh Lindblom would man the 7th, while the other 2 would be the best of the rest. Continued success in these areas would plug their biggest holes. Remember–as it is–they are 10-5 against the Reds, Nats and Giants in the 2nd half. That said, if they went 10-0, they would be 8 games over .500, making more than just a little noise.

 

Kyle Kendrick Loads Up His Pitch On September 4 In Cincinnati

 

 

PRECAP PITCH

 

 

 

Kyle Kendrick:

 

He has lasted 6.1 innings plus in 9 of 20 outings with 5 debacles.  Against the Fish at both parks (1 each), his line is:  2-0, a 1.46 ERA, 12.1 frames, 13 hits, 2 both-earned runs, 3 walks and 10 punch outs.

 

 
STARTER
RECORD
TM
STARTER
RECORD
DAY & TIME
3LHP Cliff Lee06-08, 3.12 ERA@ NatsRHP Edwin Jackson09-11, 4.13 ERAWednesday, Day

Wade LeBlanc Hurls His Dart In The 3rd At Home On September 4 Against The Brewers

 

 

 

Wade LeBlanc:

 

He is 1-2 with a 3.51 ERA as a starter.  He has worked 7 innings in 2 of 6 attempts with 1 clunker.

 

 

 

 

 

DELIVERY = PITCHER’S 2012
DEFINITION OF SEASON
Over The TopExcellent
3-Quarter SidearmGood
SidearmAbove Average
Short Arm Approximately Average
SubmarineBelow Average

 

 

Starters’ photos, not described otherwise, are in the 1st inning.

 

Quality number of the pitcher:  1 – 5

Slot on his club:  1 – 5

Ranking is 1 to 5 & 15 for the less adventurous.

*** = Approximately equal to after plus-and-minus computation

* = As a starter

 

HURLER
Kyle Kendrick
John Lannan
NUMBERA FiveA Five
CLUB SLOTFourFive
FOR 2012 SidearmShort Arm
'12 RANKING3rd of 5 Categories4th of 5 Categories
LAST STARTEephus PitchSlurve ***
LAST HIGH OR LOW13th of 15 Categories9th of 15 Categories

 

 

 
PITCH
INN
ER - R- H
 
PITCH
INN
ER
1Gyroball9 (CG)0 - 0 - 310Screwball64
2Fastball9 (CG)0 - 011Knuckleball53
3Cutter9 (CG)312Forkball0 - 4.2Monstrosity
4Split Finger7213Eephus Pitch0 - 2.2Disaster
5Curveball7314*Palm BallEjected
6Sinker6.1315*Spit Ball**Ejected+
7Slider62*Breaking BallInjured
8Changeup63*FoshRain Interrupted
9Slurve52*Knuckle CurvePitch Count
** = Suspended* = A 2nd Pitch Also

 

 

STATS




APOCALYPTIC
HORSEMEN



COLE HAMELS

COLE'S LINE: 7 INN, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K & 99 DARTS

 

 

ACE
W - L
ERA
INN+
CONV
CG - SO
BAD
INN
ER
BB - IBB
SO
Total34 - 233.486.159 of 862 - 212582.2225114 -2557
Hamels17 - 063.056.221 of 312 - 203215.1073050 - 2218
Lee06 - 093.166.123 of 300 - 002211.0074028 - 0207
Halladay11 - 084.497.015 of 250 - 007156.1078036- 0132

 

 

18TH RIDE OF THE HORSEMEN:

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ACEW - LERAINN+CONVCG SOBADINNHRERBBIBBSO
Total2 - 02.846.1+2 of 300119.014664020
Halladay1 - 07.206.1+0 of 100105.006443007
Lee0 - 01.297.0+1 of 100007.003110005
Hamels1 - 01.297.0+1 of 100007.005111008

 

 

MASKED SEPTEMBER NUMBERS:
GB 2nd WC: 6
2ND WC Pos: 4 Tied
Elimination No: 17

 

 

NOTE:  This poll will appear in every September article for you to check the current results, if it is still worthwhile.

 

The Original Article:  Philadelphia Phillies storyline: Masked September

 

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