Horse Racing: A Look at the 2012 Garden City Stakes; Another Paynter Update

It’s a rather quiet weekend in the sport of Horse Racing. That being said, we will be looking at the 2012 Grade: 1 Garden City Stakes at Belmont Park in New York where Samitar has been listed as the solid 8-5 morning line favorite in the field of seven.

The one and one eighth miles event on the turf for three year old fillies drew a strong and competitive field this year as the longest shot n the board is just 12-1.

 

BelmontPark-September 15, 2012

Race9 – 5:06 PM   

Garden City Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $300,000

For Fillies Three Year Olds

One And One Eighth Miles.

 

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Tannery	3/F		J Lezcano	118	A E Goldberg	5/1
2	2	Open Water	3/F	L	C S Nakatani	116	E J Guillo	12/1
3	3	Samitar	3/F	L1	R A Dominguez	122	C C Brown	8/5
4	4	Somali Lemonade	3/F	L	J Rosario	118	M R Matz	6/1
5	5	Ciao Bella	3/F	L	J R Velazquez	116	T A Pletcher	10/1
6	6	Karlovy Vary	3/F	L	J R Leparoux	116	G R Arnold, II	5/2
7	7	Trophy Wife	3/F	L	A Garcia	116	C R McGaughey III	8/1

 

Analysis:

1) Samitar- was beaten a neck in the Grade: 2 Lake George at Saratoga, which was also her US debut. As I looked back thru her past performance I see eight on the board finishes out of 11 lifetime starts with most being against superior competition (overseas) than what she will face on Saturday afternoon.

She also shows four works (two bullets) in roughly six weeks since theLake George, including his last which was an eye popping 5 furlongs in :58.4. (Four works in that short of a time period shows me a high level of fitness).

Solid morning line favorite and rightfully so…. The one to beat.

 

2) Tannery- is another overseas shipper (Ireland) who appears to have some ability. She is a winner of four of his last five and can handle any footing. I fully expect her to hit the board in this spot.

 

3) Karlovy Vary- is by turf super sire Dynaformer and is batting .500 (three for six with two third places finishes as well.) in her career on the turf. A look back in the past performances shows a win in the prestigious Grade: 1 Ashland Stakes (at 15-1) so you know she has some class.

If she runs back to that race or the June 23 race at Churchill Downs, she will be right there at the end of this one.

 

Honorable Mention: Somali Lemonade is as honest as the day is long in the sense that she’s never really gotten blown away in any of her starts thus far. I especially like that race two starts back where she was “blocked” on the turn for home and again in deep stretch yet finished only one length behind Samitar. So what happens if she gets a cleaner trip? Does she turn the tables?..I don’t know…but judging from that race, she might have a chance…..upset possibility??

 Record: 15-45= 33%

 

Little N’ Bets Pieces:

**** Rafael Bejarano will replace Chantal Sutherland as the rider for multiple grade I winner and Horse of the Year candidate Game On Dude, trainer Bob Baffert announced this past Tuesday.

Although Sutherland has ridden the Game On Dude  in most of his major stakes victories (the Santa Anita Handicap and the Hollywood Gold Cup), But Baffert felt the time was right to make the change and decided to switch to Bejarano.

“Rafael is our main rider and we wanted to have our No. 1 rider on our No. 1 horses,” Baffert said. “With the big fall races coming up, we just felt comfortable having Rafael on Game On Dude”.

“It was difficult for me when I told Chantal about the decision. It’s been a fun ride and we made history together, but we just felt it was time to make the change.”

Game On Dude is scheduled to either make his next start in the newly named Awesome Again Stakes (formerly the Goodwood Stakes) or possibly train up to the Nov. 3 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

 

***** 2012 Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy “has been in training for 30 days” and is being pointed for a return to competition during Keeneland’ fall meeting, according to trainer Charles Sandford.

Sandford, who was interviewed this past week during the Keeneland September yearling sale inLexington, said, “He’s going to run, knock on wood, in the Fayette Stakes”

 

 

**** I try to keep an eye on Horse Racing from overseas and around the world and albeit I generally focus on superhorses Frankel and Black Caviar, I think it’s about time I mention England three year old sensation Camelot.Camelot will try to become the first horse in 42 years to win the English Triple Crown when he runs in Saturday’s Ladbrokes St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster.

Bookmakers listed Camelot as the 2/5 morning line favorite in the 1 3/4-mile race, which is the final jewel of the English Triple Crown. Camelot won the QIPCO Two Thousand Guineas by a neck on May 5 before demolishing his foes (by five-lengths) in the Epsom Derby on June 2.
Trained by Aidan O’Brien for Derrick Smith, Michael Tabor, and Susan Magnier, Camelot is unbeaten in five lifetime starts.

Scheduled for 3:40 p.m.local time, seven other three-year-olds have entered the classic that carries a purse of $884,000, including Epsom Derby runner-up Main Sequence.

 

**** Owner Ahmed Zayat said his Haskell Invitational winner Paynter is making “big strides” in his recovery from colitis and a series of complications including laminitis, and has a chance to return to racing with a full recovery. 

“Paynter continues to take big strides toward a healthy recovery,” Zayat posted on his Twitter account Wednesday morning. “He had another great day yesterday. No fever, blood work great. Feet comfortable and walking sound on them.”

Zayat discussed Paynter’s case with renowned vet Dr. Larry Bramlage, who expressed optimism about a possible return to racing for the colt. 

“We sent [Bramlage] X-rays of Paynter’s feet for his review and second opinion,” Zayat posted. “Our conversation made me very hopeful. He confirmed to us what no other vets have told us. The X-rays look great, there is no sign of rotation (of the coffin bone) or separation or sinking in his feet. In fact, he was very encouraged and ‘pleasantly surprised’ by those images. 

“He told me that he believed, based on what he saw, that if he colt continues to improve, there is no reason why he shouldn’t return to a full recovery as a racehorse. In his opinion, he has all chances to race again at a top-notch level.”