Upset Saturday was as tough on us as it was on fans. With an ugly performance, we three will be seeking redemption this weekend. SO too will the teams that suffered unlikely defeats, including Wisconsin and Arkansas. Unfortunately for the Hogs, they draw Alabama as their next foe. Yikes…not the type of follow-up you’re looking for after a loss to Lousiana Monroe. The Badgers have it a bit easier, taking on the Aggies of Utah State. But will week 3 bring Wisconsin’s first convincing win, or could another unlikely finish be brewing? After all, USU topped rival Utah last week.
Our records on the year now stand as follows, with last week’s debacle in parentheses.
Zach Bigalke: 6-9 (3-6)
John Mitchell: 8-7 (3-6)
Matt Strobl: 6-9 (3-6)
Onto bigger and better things…
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Week 3 Picks
Speaking of Arkansas hosting Alabama, the Razorbacks will be without QB Tyler Wilson. His injury led to a historic tumble out of the polls against the Warhawks of ULM. It’s hard to imagine that his absence won’t be felt keenly again on Saturday.
Here’s what the Tailgater crew is predicting. Rankings are according to the AP Top 25 poll. All times are eastern. All picks are against the spread as defined by Yahoo! Sports’ final lines.
Saturday, 12:00pm. Columbus, OH
California Golden Bears @ Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5)
Strobl: The Buckeyes barely missed covering last week’s 18-point spread, and Urban Meyer bears the brunt of the blame. His questionable decision to accept a penalty after a third down stop led to a UCF touchdown that set the final margin at 15. Now Cal rolls in, a West Coast team playing at what will feel like 9am. The Bears have looked typically mediocre to start the year, and OSU should have a plan in place to cover for the injured Carlos Hyde at tailback. PICK: Ohio State
Mitchell: In the preseason, this would have been an interesting spread. Now after watching Ohio State look strong in their two victories and watching how poorly the Golden Bears have played in the season’s first two weeks, the Buckeyes shouldn’t have much trouble putting away Cal at the Horseshoe. Nevada ran for 220 yards against Cal with QB Cody Fajardo rushing for 97 of those yards. I shudder to think what Braxton Miller will do to this defense. PICK: Ohio State
Bigalke: Jeff Tedford must be roasting in his office chair in Berkeley. At least he gets to leave that office to take the Bears to Columbus. But playing in the Horseshoe is never easy, even when the oddsmakers give you two touchdowns and a field goal. Remember, this is a Cal team that lost to Nevada… at home. Urban outcoaches the Tedhead any day. PICK: Ohio State
Saturday, 3:30pm. Louisville,KY
UNC Tarheels @ Louisville Cardinals (+3)
Strobl: Louisville gets a surprisingly small edge here. A 3-point spread is typically what home field is worth on it’s own, and the Cards are seemingly the better team as well. I fully expect a tight back and forth game here, but UNC is just a disaster at the moment, both on and off the field. I pity Larry Fedora for stepping into the middle of this mess, and after losing to Wake Forest a week ago, his Tarheels could be starting at a losing record with a road loss here. PICK: Louisville
Mitchell: A lot of people were high on North Carolina coming into the season, but they laid and egg on the road against Wake Forest in their ACC opener. The Heels allowed Wake Forest QB Tanner Price to throw for 327 yards against them, and that should make Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater lick his chops heading into their matchup at Papa John’s Stadium. Bridgewater has turned into a bona fide star, and Louisville is the cream of the crop in the Big East. PICK: Louisville
Bigalke: Teddy Bridgewater is going to be the best player on the field, and his clinical quarterback play is the biggest reason why Louisville is the Big East favorite this year. Hell, I would consider them a contender even if West Virginia was still a member of the league. UNC brings one of the strongest defenses to Kentucky that the Cardinals will see all season, but Bridgewater will make sure a mere 3-point spread is covered easily. PICK: Louisville
Saturday, 3:30pm. Fayetteville, AR
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks (+20)
Strobl: Let’s see…the nation’s best team versus a squad that is missing it’s top player and got knocked off by the Sun Belt in week 2. Right. PICK: Alabama
Mitchell: This spread is absurd. Arkansas is nearly three touchdown dogs at home? And I’m taking Alabama to cover that absurd spread? Yeah, I am. Reports are out now that Hogs QB Tyler Wilson will NOT play against the Crimson Tide, and that means either freshman Brandon Allen or converted wide receiver Brandon Mitchell will get the start under center against one of the nation’s best defenses. Arkansas is a good team with Tyler Wilson, but as we saw last week, they are not a good team without Wilson taking the snaps. PICK: Alabama
Bigalke: Fayetteville is about to learn what a losing streak feels like, for the first time since October 2009. Will it be by three touchdowns or more? If the Razorbacks can’t beat a Sun Belt team, how will they handle the defending national champs? This could get ugly quickly, with a rudderless ship rendered obsolete by a finely-tuned new yacht. PICK: Alabama
Saturday, 6:00pm. Knoxville, TN
Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers (-3)
Strobl: Florida earned a nice road win against Texas A&M, but the Gators will be hard pressed to make it two in a row. The Vols are looking good…when’s the last time we could say that? Derek Dooley may have turned a corner and made football in Knoxville relevant again. PICK: Tennessee
Mitchell: This is the first time in a while this matchup has been meaningful on the college football landscape. The Vols and Gators are both undefeated and ranked after two weeks. Florida’s defense looked strong in the second half last week as they rallied to defeat Texas A&M in College Station, and Tennessee’s high powered offense has looked unstoppable against NC State and Georgia State. Florida has given up 213 yards per game through the air in the first two weeks, and Tyler Bray and company are without a doubt the best offense the Gators have faced thus far. Look for Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson to cause big problems for the Florida secondary. PICK: Tennessee
Bigalke: For the first time in a long time, this game ostensibly means something. But the Gators might be a little overrated, defensively strong and offensively offensive. Three points basically means home-field advantage. The Vols have that AND a potent offense which should be able to more effectively move the ball against Florida than Texas A&M did last week. PICK:Tennessee
Saturday, 7:30pm. Palo Alto, CA
USC Trojans @ Stanford Cardinal (+9)
Strobl: USC took some time to get on track against Syracuse last week, but blame the jet lag. In their only trip to the East Coast, the men of Troy turned it on late against the Orange and headed home with an easy win. Palo Alto is a more famliar location, and I doubt the Cardinal can keep this game within single digits. In the post-Andrew Luck era, the Cardinal looked lousy against San Jose State before picking things up against Duke. But this is a whole different level of competition. PICK: USC
Mitchell: This spread is a little lower than it should be, in my opinion. I understand that Matt Barkley is 0-3 against the Cardinal, but Andrew Luck isn’t under center in Palo Alto anymore. The Cardinal have struggled mightily against the pass in their opening games against San Jose State and Duke, giving up 290 yards per game through the air. That’s bad news going against the Trojans and their high flying offense led by Heisman front runner Matt Barkley and the best wide receiver tandem in the country in Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. PICK: USC
Bigalke: Who’s your daddy, Trojans? 4 out of the past 5 years, Stanford has had USC’s number. And while Andrew Luck and Jim Harbaugh don’t rule Palo Alto anymore, the Cardinal are still a tough outfit that won’t give USC an easy game. Matt Barkley and his receiving roadshow should be better this week than they were against Syracuse, though… right? PICK: USC
Saturday, 8:00pm. Corvallis, OR
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan State Spartans (-6)
Strobl: Every time I bet on Notre Dame I end up getting burned. Michigan State has some question marks, particularly at the quarterback position, but I’m done thinking that Brian Kelly has finally gotten his offense in gear. On the road Notre Dame should keep it close, but Sparty should emerge with the win. PICK: Michigan State
Mitchell: This is one of the toughest picks of the week, but I don’t really know what to make of the Fighting Irish after two weeks. They throttled Navy in Dublin, but barely survived their home opener against Purdue last week. The Spartans at least have a win over a good opponent in the early goings with a 17-13 win over Boise State under their belt. I think Le’Veon Bell will have a strong game in East Lansing, and this spread isn’t really big enough for me to pick Notre Dame to cover. PICK: Michigan State
Bigalke: If any team is going to need to bust out the “Little Giants”, it’ll be the Golden Domers this time around. While Notre Dame may indeed be back, Michigan State’s defense is simply too strong for an Irish offense that doesn’t know which of its two good-but-not-great quarterbacks it wants to use on any given drive. PICK: Michigan State
Saturday, 9:15pm. Oxford, MS
Texas Longhorns@ Mississippi Runnin’ Rebels (+10)
Strobl: Did Ole Miss do something worthwhile that I didn’t pick up on? Texas has been creaming opponents– granted, a pair of Mountain West teams– by huge margins. The Rebels are also undefeated on the young season but against even weaker competition. Despite the fact that both teams enter this tilt with solid running games and decent looking defenses, the Rebels are pretenders and possibly the worst team in the SEC. PICK: Texas
Mitchell: Have wins over Central Arkansas and UTEP changed people’s minds about Ole Miss? The Rebels are 2-0, and they get the Longhorns in Oxford, but this is still a bad football team that is in for a rude awakening as Texas invades Vaught-Hemingway. The Ole Miss offense should struggle for most of the game against a strong Texas defensive unit that is probably one of the best in the country. This spread is a lot smaller than it should be, and I think the ‘Horns take this by two touchdowns at least. PICK: Texas
Bigalke: You could probably spot the Rebels another touchdown and STILL choose Texas in this one. Have I personally thought that the Longhorns look like a top 25 team? No… but they’re still at least 50 spots better than Ole Miss in a ranking of all FBS teams. The Horns will hook ‘em on the ground; David Ash won’t have to be a world-beater against this D. PICK: Texas
Saturday, 10:00pm. Salt Lake City, UT
BYU Cougars @ Utah Utes (+4)
Strobl: Kyle Whittingham has put together some incredible teams in recent years, but Utah’s move to the Pac 12 has seemingly stifled his mojo. The Utes simple aren’t all that good this season, as evidence by last week’s surprising loss to Utah State. Brigham Young has looked good early on, and even on the road I expect the Cougars to handle this. PICK: BYU
Mitchell: This is another spread that is a lot lower than I expected. BYU has looked very good through two weeks led by QB Riley Nelson. Utah is fresh off of a road loss to rival Utah State that really dampened expectations for the Utes season. Utah’s offense has really struggled so far in 2012, and the Cougars have given up just 9.5 points per game. It also doesn’t help Utah that QB Jordan Wynn decided to give up football, and now the Utes go forward with an inexperienced QB. PICK: BYU
Bigalke: This might be the last time you see the Holy War for a while. For more than seven decades, the Cougars and Utes shared a conference and the game was guaranteed. When Utah went to the Pac-12 and BYU went independent in 2011, it turned a tradition into an afterthought. So get it while you can, because this is the last time for a while that you’ll get to see BYU make mincemeat of their biggest rival. PICK: BYU
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Picks of the Week: Our Favorite Point Spreads
About Matt Strobl