A fairly successful week 4 did not, as I had hoped, lead to a sustained winning streak for the Tailgater crew, though Zach has now managed back-to-back winning weeks. As the calendar turns to October, perhaps the new month can usher in some better luck for the rest of us. Week 6 features some decisive contests in the SEC and a Big 12 matchup that could have a significant impact on the final standings.
Zach Bigalke: 20-22 (5-4)
John Mitchell: 19-23 (4-5)
Matt Strobl: 18-24 (3-6)
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Week 5 Picks
The big off-the-field news this week was TCU quarterback Casey Pachall’s arrest. Charged with a DWI in his latest brush with the law (yes, there have been others), Pachall has been suspended indefinitely from the team. What this does to TCU’s title chances remains to be seen. But the Horned Frogs were already a bit overrated given the quality of their wins, and being forced to use a new QB probably doesn’t bode well. Vegas acknowledged the circumstances by dropping the line, which had already been “final” at TCU -10, to TCU -8.5 at home versus Iowa State.
Here’s what the Tailgater crew is predicting. Rankings are according to the AP Top 25 poll. All times are eastern. All picks are against the spread as defined by Yahoo! Sports’ final lines.
Saturday, 12:00pm. State College, PA
Northwestern Wildcats @ Penn State Nittany Lions (-2.5)
Strobl: With this kind of spread I would pick the home team in this matchup regardless of where it was held. Since it happens to be in Happy Valley, I’ve got to go with PSU. Northwestern has been good, but against second-tier opponents. Penn State is a shadow of its former self, but we’ve seen signs of life in recent weeks. On a high after the beatdown in Champaign, PSU will find a way to get it done this week. PICK: Penn State
Mitchell: It’s been a great start to the season for Pat Fitzgerald’s bunch as Northwestern has started the season 5-0. The Wildcats haven’t really faced a good team yet, but they do have four victories over BCS opposition and they are the last remaining bowl-eligible undefeated team in the Big Ten. Despite all of that, I’m picking Penn State, the same Nittany Lion squad who was dead in the water after starting 0-2 with losses to Ohio and Virginia. Give Bill O’Brien credit though, because Penn State has gotten better week-to-week and has won three games in a row including their Big Ten opener against Illinois. Matt McGloin has looked like a different quarterback this year, and Penn State’s defense has been strong and should slow down the Wildcats offense. I like Penn State at home to get their fourth straight victory. PICK: Penn State
Bigalke: It was inevitable that the Wildcats would continue to get little respect from the polls despite a 5-0 start. They’re Northwestern, after all, and their presence atop Big Ten ledgers is a rarefied sight. It was also inevitable that Vegas would overinflate Penn State’s estimation after a 3-game winning streak. They’re calling the Nittany Lions a 3-point favorite at home, essentially calling it a wash. Are you really going to count on Matt McGloin and a depleted roster defeating a Pat Fitzgerald-coached team? Northwestern isn’t conceding their shot at 6-0 in a down year for the Big Ten. PICK: Northwestern
Saturday, 3:30pm. Gainesville, FL
LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators (+2.5)
Strobl: Another 2.5 spread, but this one has just a bit more on the line for its two contenders. LSU began this year as a favorite to get back to the BCS and possibly return to the National Championship, but the Bayou Bengals have looked like crap in each of the last two weeks. In contrast, Florida was an unknown in the preseason but has come on strong with wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee. Unfortunately, I just don’t have enough faith in the Gators, even at home. If the spread was slightly larger I might take the risk, but LSU is the better team on paper and, given the importance of this matchup, should play like it. PICK: LSU
Mitchell: This is the most intriguing game on the slate for me this weekend. Is Florida really back? The Gators have jumped into the Top 10 after a 4-0 start that included two conference road wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee. Is this the week that LSU gets back on track? The Tigers looked strong to start the season, especially in their win over Washington, but they have looked downright average the last two weeks. First, the Bayou Bengals struggled to get a 12-10 win over a one-win Auburn team, and then surrendered 22 points to mighty Towson. Zach Mettenberger was supposed to be a major upgrade over Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson, but he’s looked pretty average in five games this season. The Swamp will be rocking, and the Gators could very well pull the upset, but I think this is the week that LSU wakes up from their stupor and reminds the world that they are a legitimate National Championship threat. PICK: LSU
Bigalke: I’ve been staring at this one for a while, and I decide whether Florida is LSU East or vice versa. Both teams’ offenses are built to run the ball and mask their quarterbacks’ deficiencies. Both defenses have carried their teams to October with undefeated records. Les Miles brings a Tigers team to Gainesville that needs a win to stave their slip down the polls. Florida has soared to top-ten status after entering 2012 with question marks galore. Neither team is likely good enough in all phases of the game to be legitimate national title contenders, but they’re well-matched for a slobberknocker in the Swamp. PICK: Florida
Saturday, 3:30pm. Lubbock, TX
Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+5.5)
Strobl: I picked against Texas Tech last week and got burned. I thought that the Raiders stellar defense was little more than a result of playing weak teams. I thought Iowa State would come through in Ames. Things didn’t work out that way. So what have I learned? Maybe nothing, because I’m going against the Raiders again. We’ll see if it ends up being a “fool me twice, shame on me” scenario, but I’m just not buying that this team is as good as it seems. Neither is Oklahoma, but the Sooners should be good enough to take this by a TD. PICK: Oklahoma
Mitchell: I was swayed early this week on Texas Tech based the line quickly dropping to 5.5 after Oklahoma opened up as an 8-point favorite. The line has stayed at 5.5 this week despite heavy betting on the Sooners, and that is a red-flag. Oklahoma has had an extra week to prepare for their trek to Lubbock, but Landry Jones and the Sooners have looked average in their three games in 2012. Texas Tech, on the other hand, has shown a lot of improvement in Tommy Tuberville’s third season as the head coach. The Red Raiders got a nice win on the road against Iowa State last week and shockingly Tech boasts the #1 total defense in the country in 2012. This game will be interesting as we finally found out if Texas Tech’s defense is legit or not as they face their first real test against a dangerous Oklahoma offense. I think Texas Tech is a for real, and I think they prove that against Oklahoma by not just covering the spread, but knocking off the Sooners for the second consecutive season. PICK: Texas Tech
Bigalke: Why is the ranking in front of the Sooners instead of the Red Raiders? Texas Tech, not heralded Oklahoma, boasts the dominant defense in this matchup. They’ve been more consistent. And at least the computers know it, even if the pollsters don’t yet. How, though, does Vegas call Bob Stoops’ crew an 8-point favorite in Lubbock? These are betting men, and they’re hoping that people keep seeing that Oklahoma name and buying the hype. They’re so confident they’re spotting Tech more than a touchdown, just so they have more ways to break people’s hearts. Tuberville’s crew (at the very least) covers a touchdown spread. PICK: Texas Tech
Saturday, 7:00pm. Columbia, SC
Georgia Bulldogs @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-1)
Strobl: The oddsmakers couldn’t even stomach separating these teams. A one-point line in a true road/ home matchup is a clear signal that no one really knows how it’s going to shake out. After seeing the Bulldogs luck their way into a win against Tennessee, I’m leaning toward South Carolina. The venue seals the deal. Whoever wins this will have a major edge in the SEC East. PICK: South Carolina
Mitchell: This is a toss-up game, and the winner will take early control over the SEC Eastern division race. The Gamecocks are in more of a must-win position due to the murderers row they are facing in the next three weeks with road trips to LSU and Florida coming directly after this week. Georgia’s offense has been one of the best in the nation averaging 48 points per game led by a power ground game piloted by true freshman Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley. Aaron Murry has looked strong as well, but the Dawgs will be without leading receiver Michael Bennett. South Carolina does have the defensive front to slow down Georgia’s SEC leading running game. Led by All American hopeful Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina has a scary defensive line, and they are a big reason the Gamecocks are 7th in the country in run defense. Again, this is a toss-up, and South Carolina playing at home tips the scales in their favor for me. PICK: South Carolina
Bigalke: The Gamecocks are still favored, but the line keeps falling and falling toward pick’em status. I still think Georgia, with Aaron Murray and a backfield of freshman double-trouble, possesses the most balanced offense in the SEC. The defense hasn’t looked great statistically, but as it integrates in starters who were suspended to start the season it should only improve. South Carolina has the stouter defense, but an offense that has been pedestrian in 2012. Which weakness will cave first? Which strength will prevail? PICK: Georgia
Saturday, 7:00pm. Austin, TX
West Virginia Mountaineers @ Texas Longhorns (-6.5)
Strobl: I can see why Vegas would be a little skittish about WVU going on the road against a traditional power program. Battling Texas in Austin will be the Mountaineers’ true welcome to the Big 12, and unless their defense improves dramatically it could be another long, pressure-filled night for Geno Smith. On the other hand, the UT defense looked just as bad against Oklahoma State, and the ‘Horns barely survived in Stillwater. If I were creating a line from scratch, it would probably favor Texas due to the venue, but 6.5 feels too big for these types of teams. Even if WVU doesn’t pull off the “upset”, it should have a good shot at covering. PICK: West Virginia
Mitchell: I’m having a tough time seeing why Texas is favored by so many in this one. The Longhorns’ claim to fame this season was a narrow road win over Oklahoma State. Of course, West Virginia’s lone quality win came in a shootout against Baylor where they gave up 63 points. A couple of weeks ago I was really intrigued to see Geno Smith face off with Texas’ defense, but the Longhorns stop unit hasn’t lived up to its enormous preseason hype. They are middle of the road in most defensive statistics, and they allowed Oklahoma State to roll up 576 yards of total offense. That can’t be comforting news for Mack Brown or Manny Diaz as Heisman front runner Geno Smith brings Dana Holgerson’s air raid to Austin. West Virginia’s defense won’t be able to stop David Ash and the Texas ground game, but I’m not betting against Smith in a shootout. PICK: West Virginia
Bigalke: West Virginia… is the underdog?! Grab as many points as they’re willing to give the Mountaineers! You won’t need them — Geno Smith and that offense should outduel David Ash and the Longhorns in a defense-optional battle. But it’s reassuring knowing you’ve picked the underdog nonetheless. A lot has been written after the WVU-Baylor game about how Dana Holgorsen’s crew can’t stop opponents. It isn’t like Mack Brown’s side has been a shutdown unit. When you’re expecting a shootout, it’s hard to bet against the Air Raid. PICK: West Virginia
Saturday, 7:50pm. South Bend, IN
Miami Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14)
Strobl: Whoa, whoa, whoa. A two-touchdown edge for the Irish? I understand that Notre Dame put itself back on the national stage with wins over Michigan and Michigan State. I also understand that 20-3 over Sparty probably inspired this week 6 spread. But as flawed as Miami is, the ‘Canes can score. They average nearly 36 points per game, and in their last three have broken 40 twice. Notre Dame is the more complete team and should win, but if the Irish only bested Michigan by a single touchdown (despite a total implosion by Denard Robinson) it’s hard to justify 14 on Saturday night. PICK: Miami
Mitchell: This game quietly got intriguing over the last few weeks with Notre Dame looking like a BCS-worthy team, and the Hurricanes showing improvement every week under Al Golden. After getting blown away by Kansas State, Miami has won three straight games including two over ACC rivals Georgia Tech and NC State. Stephen Morris has given Miami a reliable option at Quarterback and Duke Johnson has been a revelation in the backfield. The ‘Canes’ offense will be a good test for the Irish’s defense, which has been one of the best in the country so far this season. Notre Dame has yielded only 9 points per contest in 2012 led by Manti Te’o. Notre Dame’s offense has been sluggish, but they are going against a Miami defense that has allowed 33.4 points per game. I think Miami covers the 14 point spread just because I can’t trust the Irish offense, but Notre Dame should win. PICK: Miami
Bigalke: Look, I still don’t think the Hurricane are “back”, as so many people have started to say. But is Notre Dame “back” yet, either? The oddsmakers are calling the Irish a 14-point favorite. While the Canes have managed competency on offense, they’re abysmal defensively. Notre Dame has one of the best lockdown defenses in the nation. Brian Kelly, the offensive wizard of Central Michigan and Cincinnati fame, has found success in South Bend thanks to Manti Te’o and a stout group on the opposite side of the ball. They, more than Everett Golson and crew, are the reason why the Irish fight on to cover the spread. PICK: Notre Dame
Saturday, 8:00pm. Columbus, OH
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5)
Strobl: From one critical Big Ten tilt to the next. Ohio State survived its faceoff with the Spartans, but there’s no reprieve to be found as the ‘Huskers march into the Horseshoe. Nebraska is fresh off a comeback win over the hapless Badgers in which an excellent second half overwrote an ugly start. The Buckeyes couldn’t do much in East Lansing, but it didn’t take much to beat a lackluster MSU squad. The question is which of these teams can put together a better 60 minutes of football. The Big Ten is chock full of mediocrity and parity this year. This matchup could go either way given the similarities of the two programs. Both are highly dependent on their QBs and defenses. The .5 part of this spread makes me very nervous, because I expect another tight result. If Ohio State wins, I could see it being by a field goal. PICK: Nebraska
Mitchell: The Big Ten better hope Nebraska wins this game because the Huskers seem to be the conference’s best chance at not getting embarrassed in the Rose Bowl come January. The Buckeyes are probably the best team in the Big Ten, but they aren’t eligible to play for the conference title or a bowl game this season. Ohio State is coming off of an impressive road win over Michigan State last week, and now they are back to the Horseshoe to take on the Huskers. The Buckeyes aren’t without their flaws, and are too one-dimensional with Braxton Miller being the only offensive weapon. For Nebraska, Taylor Martinez’s improvement as a passer has been unbelievable in 2012, but Ohio State’s defense presents a tough test. I wish this spread was less than 3, but I’ll still take the Buckeyes at home. PICK: Ohio State
Bigalke: The Buckeyes are favored by just over a field goal in the Horseshoe. Nebraska is coming off of a comeback defeat of Wisconsin at home, and know that they are the best-positioned Big Ten team (besides Northwestern) to make waves on a national scale for the rest of this season. Taylor Martinez has been erratic, but he’s had to shoulder less of his team’s offense than Braxton Miller has had to do in Urban Meyer’s system. What does that all mean? In a weird season, Ohio State is supposedly the best team in the Big Ten despite their sanctions… which means they’re due for a loss, right? PICK: Nebraska
Saturday, 10:30pm. Eugene, OR
Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks (-24.5)
Strobl: Picking against the Ducks would b suicide right now. That’s all there is too it. Washington isn’t nearly as good as Stanford might have made you believe, and Oregon has been demonstrably better than every team not named Alabama. If you need some statistical convincing, recall LSU’s 41-3 demolition of the Huskies last month. PICK: Oregon
Mitchell: Washington is inexplicably ranked after their Thursday night win over Stanford. I don’t care that the Cardinal were ranked in the Top-10. The truth is, the USC team that Stanford beat isn’t as good as people thought, Stanford is a very flawed football team, and this is the same Washington team that lost by 38 points on the road against an LSU team that has looked like anything but the team that made the National Championship game last season. I have a feeling Oregon will do much of the same thing against Washington that LSU did. The Huskies simply do not have the offense to keep up with Oregon, and their defense will not be able to slow down the Oregon offense. PICK: Oregon
Bigalke: A week after upsetting the natural order of the Pac-12 North, the Huskies have to come to Autzen and take on an Oregon team that can beat opponents in a dazzling variety of ways. Washington should have no business hanging with the Ducks… but that’s what we said last week about their game against Stanford as well. The difference is that Oregon is less one-dimensional offensively than the Cardinal, where the Huskies could basically stack the box against Stepfon Taylor and dare Josh Nunes to throw. Don’t dare Marcus Mariota. PICK: Oregon
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