We go coast to coast again in this weekend’s Horse Racing Race(s) of the Week as we will be looking at the 2013 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs in Florida, where potential superstar Verrazano is schedule to make his next start and the 2013 San Felipe at Santa Anita in California where another potential superstar, Flashback, will take on the talented Goldecents.
Please forgive my tardiness and briefness of this weeks report as I have been feeling a little under the weather. In fact, I’ve spent some time in the hospital this week.
Santa Anita Park – Saturday, March 9, 2013
Race 7 – 3:35 PM
San Felipe Stakes (Grade II)
Purse $300,000
For Three-Year-Olds
One And One Sixteenth Miles
|
PP |
Horse |
A/S |
Med |
Jockey |
Wgt |
Trainer |
| 1 | Carving | 3/C | L | R Bejarano | 118 | B Baffert |
| 2 | Flashback | 3/C | L | J R Leparoux | 123 | B Baffert |
| 3 | Goldencents | 3/C | L | K Krigger | 120 | D F O’Neill |
| 4 | Kochees | 3/C | L | J Valdivia, Jr. | 118 | M Pender |
| 5 | Hear the Ghost | 3/G | L | C S Nakatani | 118 | J Hollendorfer |
| 6 | Tiz a Minister | 3/C | L | G K Gomez | 118 | P G Aguirre |
| 7 | Salutos Amigos | 3/C | L | M Garcia | 118 | E J Guillot |
| 8 | Omega Star | 3/G | L | J Talamo | 118 | J A Shirreffs |
Analysis:
1) Flashback- is unbeaten and has been impressive in his first two career starts.
He came from behind to win by 3 ½ lengths in his career debut vs. maidens, then jumped straight into grade: 2 competition and scored a blow out (by 6 ½ lengths) wire to wire victory in the Robert B Lewis.
I have him listed at #7 on my Countdown to the Triple Crown list and will jump higher with a win on Saturday afternoon.
2) Goldencents- is 3 for 4 in his career with his only defeat coming against champion Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes last year.
I have this colt by Into Mischief ranked #4 on my Countdown list and you maybe asking yourself why I am picking him second when I have him listed above the top pick on my Countdown list.
The answer is because I believe Flashback might be better than this colt but that has yet to be proven. Right now, on paper, this colt has accomplished more thus far in his career so he stays higher…obviously I will re-look at things come Saturday night/Sunday.
Lastly, Kevin Krigger is the best rider no-one knows about.
3) Carving- started his career off 3 for 4 but has gone downhill a bit since. You almost have to respect just about anything that comes out of the Baffert barn at this point (Including the top pick) and, if he bounces back to his old form, he looks best of the rest.
Tampa Bay Downs – Saturday, March 9, 2013
Race 10 – 5:15 PM
Tampa Bay Derby (Grade II)
Purse $350,000.
For Three Year Olds
One And One Sixteenth Miles
|
P# |
PP |
Horse |
A/S |
Med |
Jockey |
Wgt |
Trainer |
M/L |
| 1 | 1 | Eton Blue | 3/C | L | J Bravo | 118 | N P Zito |
20/1 |
| 2 | 2 | Purple Egg | 3/G | L | E Trujillo | 118 | J Cibelli |
10/1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honorable Dillon | 3/C | L | C J Lanerie | 118 | E Kenneally |
6/1 |
| 4 | 4 | Java’s War | 3/C | L | W Martinez | 122 | K G McPeek |
12/1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dynamic Sky | 3/C | L | J Rosario | 118 | M E Casse |
4/1 |
| 6 | 6 | Verrazano | 3/C | L | J R Velazquez | 118 | T A Pletcher |
4/5 |
| 7 | 7 | Offlee Fast | 3/C | L | J Z Santana | 118 | R Pellegrini |
30/1 |
| 8 | 8 | Park City | 3/C | L | E S Prado | 118 | T A Pletcher |
12/1 |
| 9 | 9 | Falling Sky | 3/C | L | J L Espinoza | 122 | J P Terranova, II |
10/1 |
Analysis:
1) Verrazano- exciting colt by More Than Ready is unbeaten and, thus far, untested as he’s won his first two races by a combined 23 lengths.
Currently, I have him ranked #3 on my Countdown list and I expect another easy win Saturday afternoon. That being said, I am looking for two things.
One, I’ll need to see how he reacts to his first two turn race and two, I’m hoping someone steps up and runs a big race to make this colt work a little bit.
Let’s face it, if you are going to win the Kentucky Derby, you will need to be battled tested and he, so far, is not.
2) Falling Sky- is versatile as he has come from behind to win in his two previous wins, yet his last was a game front running win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (which is a prep for this).
He is a winner of 3 of 4 in his career, by Lion Heart, and shows a bullet work (5F- :59.3) for this…looks next best.
3) Dynamic Sky- stretch runner by the gorgeous Sky Mesa just missed behind the second pick in the aforementioned Sam Davis Stakes.
He likes this track, shows good works and should hit the board in some capacity in this spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Purple Egg is unbeaten while reeling off 2 easy wins before “grinding” out a win in his stakes debut back in December. He shows a nice bullet work (5F- 1.00) over the track and also registered his best speed figure over this track as well. Dangerous rival and priced right (10-1 morning line), but I just question taking on Verrazano in his first start in over 3 months. Park City is also unbeaten, closes and but steps way up in company. Honorable Dillon won the Hutchenson Stakes in 1:22.2 in his last, he tries a distance of ground for the first time and if he can handle the longer trip, he should make his presence felt late in this race.
Record: 4-11 = 36%
2012: 24-74 = 32%
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