After 10 starts there will be a clearer picture for the Philadelphia Phillies regarding Jonathan Pettibone. Yes, there are plenty of previous examples to peruse for consideration.
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Of all the possibilities, there is one that can be immediately ruled out.
Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum arrived on the scene quickly after short minor-league careers. Lincecum worked 62.2 innings for a 1.01 ERA, while Hamels had a 1.43 ERA after 201 frames. There was no element of surprise when they rose to the top tier. It was predictable and that is not a common occurrence.
John Lannan will miss approximately 10 outings until mid-June, and Pettibone hopes to earn them. His journey to the Bank has been 497.2 innings long with a 3.44 ERA. If he succeeds in holding down the 5 slot, he will face the Marlins 3 times; but see the Mets, the Giants, the Indians, the Nationals, the Brewers and the Twins once each. That said, management wants to view their asset firsthand at the highest level.
Other studs come from the front-of-the-rotation crop: Roy Halladay, Curt Schilling, Brett Myers and Kyle Drabek. Schilling achieved number one status, Myers was an average two, and Drabek had 2 months as a five before Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, Halladay learned his craft after a demotion to Triple-A Syracuse. That stated, Pettibone is one of many young talented hurlers in the farm system, but nobody has labeled him as a future ace.
Philadelphia Phillies: 2013 ERA for the MLB 5 at game 24 (includes all results from 4/26)
There are other arms who have experienced the path from Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley to the show. Kyle Kendrick had to develop a changeup over a 2-year period, and pitch in long relief with emergency starts before finding his rotation spot. J.A. Happ excelled over a season and a half before the hitters caught up to him. Carlos Carrasco went from a high 2008 prospect at Reading to Cleveland in 2011 as a bottom-rung hurler, and now he’s the 6 on a 5-man staff.
Then, there were the surprises at Lehigh Valley: Vance Worley and Tyler Cloyd. Worley survived with the parent club but, like Happ, he could not continue to frequently strand runners. Meanwhile, Cloyd is back at Lehigh Valley after 6 appearances in Philly last summer. Pettibone, however, does not fall into this category either, because the brain trust believes he has a future on the mound in red pinstripes.
After 9 additional performances, there will be more of a handle on his ability against major-league competition. At this point he draws no parallels to Halladay, Schilling, Myers or Drabek, but his projection is higher than Kendrick, Happ and Carrasco. That would equate to a three if he achieves the blueprint of the higher-ups. He will be worth monitoring over the next 2 months regarding his progress and results.
If he sparkles, the expectations will exceed reality.
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This is the 29th storyline for 2013. Check out my recent publication (May’s Expectations) on the Phillies page or my author archives, where there is an excerpt photo. Also, my new feature is Story-poll. The last one was The Other Side of the Ball.
I will periodically publish the 2013 ERA for the NL East and the MLB 5. Thank you, to all who bookmarked my page.