The Denver Broncos will win the Super Bowl if

The speculation has been rampant as to what will affect the Denver Broncos’ offense on the grandest stage in the greatest game in sports.   Analysts have debated weather conditions, disguising coverage schemes, and the Pro Bowl credentials of the Seattle Seahawks secondary among a long list of topics.  Two weeks after the conference championship games gives ample time to dissect, discuss and argue what will be the winning formula for this historical game.  Now that it is only a few days away, here is a simple take on how the Broncos will emerge from the field of battle victorious.

The Denver Broncos will win the Super Bowl if:

They commit zero turnovers and hold Seattle’s rushing total to 110 yards or less.  In a world where analysts give five, six, or sometimes seven keys to victory, the simplicity of two doesn’t seem grand enough.  In a complex game sometimes simple is the key.  These are “must dos” if the Broncos want to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy on Sunday.  (Those who truly know the history and tradition of the game of football may find this ironic).

Although Seattle possesses a very good defense, they are not the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.  Their defense will not be able to hold the Broncos’ offense back for an entire

Seattle Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch must be contained (Photo:

game.  This record-breaking offense is just too good and they create too many matchup problems across the field to be corralled for a full sixty minutes.  No turnovers will force the Seahawks to work for all their points.

Seattle’s offense finds it difficult to manufacture high point totals without turnovers.  In 2013, they only once scored more than 24 points without getting a turnover and that was in an overtime game.  They scored 27.  No turnovers mean one more thing; Peyton Manning is not pressured into interceptions.  With good protection, Manning will find the open receiver, move the chains and score points regardless of the weather or the caliber of defensive backs.

Holding Seattle to 110 yards or less is a two-fold win for Denver.  First, it doesn’t allow the Seahawks to control the time of possession.  More chances with the ball equates to points for Manning and that offense.  Secondly, Seattle will have to rely on the arm of Russell Wilson.  This rushing yardage output means Marshawn Lynch doesn’t take over the game.  He is a powerful and talented runner.  He will get some yards, but if he is held to 80-85 yards that is a huge win.  It also means Wilson doesn’t keep drives alive with his feet.  A couple decent six to seven yard runs is not devastating to Denver as long as his running is held in check for most of the game and especially during critical situations.  The Seahawks just don’t have the playmakers at wide receiver to match points with the Denver offense.

Succeed in these two tasks and Seattle will put up 17 to 20 points.  Maybe they even score 24 points.  The Broncos score 24 points in their sleep.

How the Broncos can accomplish these two tasks will be discussed in a future post.