With each passing start of pure brilliance turned in by Max Scherzer, the likelihood of him returning to pitch for the Detroit Tigers next year and beyond reduces ever so slightly.
Scherzer predictably turned in another gem against the lowly Astros on Monday night, raising the Tigers’ overall record to 18-9 and creating 4.5 games of separation between 1st and 2nd place in the AL Central.
Scherzer will turn 30 in July and has followed up his Cy Young campaign in 2013 with an even better start in ’14. He is 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a dynamite 60:12 K to walk ratio over his first 47 innings. He is the ace for the Tigers. He’s only getting better. And his free agency price tag is only going to climb.
Passionate fans around Detroit vilified Max for turning down the $144M the Tigers offered him several weeks ago. But it wasn’t a betrayal from a player who loves representing the Tigers on and off the field; it was simply a business decision. Saying no to $144M seems crazy, until you say hello to $200M.
I took some comfort in his decision not to extend with Detroit because it told me one thing with absolute certainty: Max is 100% healthy. Had there been even a shadow of a doubt regarding his health coming into this season he might’ve taken the deal. His decision to pass on such a fortune meant that if this will indeed be his Motor City swan song, that it’s going to be a thing of beauty.
Back-to-back Cy Young awards? It sure looks that way. But what does it mean for the Tigers beyond 2014?
The future arrives on the mound tonight at Comerica Park as 22-year old lefty Robbie Ray (prized possession in the Doug Fister trade) will make his major league debut, filling in for the injured Anibal Sanchez. Ray has posted a 1.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a sparkling 21:5 K to walk ratio so far for the AAA Toledo Mud Hens.
The young southpaw is developing rapidly and is probably major league ready right now. Will a home start against the pathetic Houston Astros offense tell us much about Ray’s long-term potential? Of course not, but that’s not the point.
Next year the starting five for the Tigers will almost certainly be Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, and Ray. This is a nice mix of veterans and youth, righties and lefties.
The 2015 payroll savings when going from what Scherzer will make (north of $25M/year I’d assume) to Ray’s miniscule salary will give the Tigers all kinds of flexibility next offseason.
Keep in mind that another $26M comes off the books via the expiring contracts of Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter. Oh, and $1.9M courtesy of Phil Coke hopefully saying farewell once and for all.
Detroit will have to fork over some hefty arbitration-based raises to Rick Porcello and Austin Jackson while Justin Verlander’s jumbo deal leaps $8M from $20M to $28M next year and beyond. Regardless, this team will without a doubt head into 2015 with a much more manageable payroll structure.
Should the Tigers re-up Victor Martinez or is it better to unlock the designated hitter slot to help prolong the shelf-life of Miguel Cabrera? This will probably be GM Dave Dombrowski’s toughest offseason decision.
I can certainly imagine the Tigers without Hunter’s services, so long as he is replaced by a capable hitter with a stronger defensive presence in right field. But the Tigers without VMart? That’s a tough one folks.
What I do know is that options are a good thing and as painful as it will be to watch Scherzer depart, it is going to free up this organization to continue to get younger and better for the long haul.
And that starting rotation next year, if Ray lives up to the promise, is still going to be incredibly good.
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